THE Economist has said President Bola Tinubu could retain the presidency in the 2027 election despite continuing security and economic challenges, arguing that Nigeria’s “complicated electoral dynamics” could work in favour of the incumbent.
News Point Nigeria reports that the British publication, in its latest edition, acknowledged the difficulties facing the administration but said Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the abolition of fuel subsidy, had brought a degree of stability to Nigeria, with inflation falling, government revenue rising and investment picking up.
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The publication, however, noted that insecurity remained a massive challenge, particularly in the North, while describing the opposition as splintered and disorganised. It quoted Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, a consultancy, as saying, “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”
The Economist also said that in Maiduguri, “some people say they do not even know who else is on the ballot besides Mr Tinubu,” while noting that dissatisfaction with the President may not, on its own, be enough to remove an incumbent who has access to the ruling-party machinery.
Meanwhile, the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has also projected the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of its main rivals, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), in its October electoral map ahead of the 2027 election.
The PIG, in its October electoral map released on Friday, said the projection was a snapshot of the political landscape based on developments at the time of the assessment and should not be interpreted as a final declaration of the eventual election result.
It gave the APC 19 states, the NDC 10 states and the ADC eight states. The October assessment came after a month marked by several developments which PIG said could influence political calculations ahead of the 2027 election.
PIG Convener, Lai Omotola, identified the reported denial of entry into Benue State involving Peter Obi, one of President Bola Tinubu’s leading political opponents, as one of the notable developments during September.
He also cited the controversy surrounding President Tinubu’s working vacation, which generated debate over the President’s absence from the country, as another development considered in the group’s assessment.
The group also pointed to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s continued focus on the fuel subsidy issue and what it described as a “sudden turnaround” as part of the political developments observed during the month.
Omotola further said the APC appeared to be conducting more campaign-related mobilisation across the country, followed by the NDC, while the ADC had constituted a Presidential Campaign Council but had yet to commence significant nationwide campaigns. He also highlighted a brewing disagreement between some APC governors and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike as a development that could affect political calculations.
In another development, All Progressives Congress stakeholders in the North-Central have resolved to mobilise what they described as the highest number of votes across the six geopolitical zones for President Bola Tinubu in next year’s election.
The stakeholders, comprising governors, political appointees and other party leaders from the six North-Central states and the Federal Capital Territory, also fixed October 10, 2026, for a mass rally in Lafia, Nasarawa State, to demonstrate the zone’s support for Tinubu’s re-election bid.
The resolutions were reached at a planning meeting of the North-Central Grassroots Mobilisation Movement held at the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation in Abuja.
Reading the resolutions after the meeting, APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, said the stakeholders unanimously agreed to rally behind Tinubu and mobilise extensively across the zone ahead of the election.
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“We agreed that overwhelmingly, the North Central would mobilize votes and will overwhelmingly support Mr. President as our Candidate in the 2027 general elections,” Yilwatda said.
He said the October 10 rally would bring together APC members and supporters from Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau states, as well as the Federal Capital Territory, to demonstrate the zone’s support for the President.
According to him, the stakeholders intend to use the rally to “show that solidarity for Mr. President and tell the world that we’re out to give the highest number of votes for Mr. President compared to all the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria.”
Yilwatda said the meeting also approved medical outreaches targeted at poor and vulnerable residents with health challenges in selected parts of the North-Central. The planned services include comprehensive eye screening and treatment, refraction and prescription of spectacles, cataract assessment and selected cataract surgical services where appropriate facilities are available, as well as glaucoma and diabetic eye screening.
The stakeholders also resolved to constitute a reconciliation committee to address grievances within the party and bring together aggrieved members ahead of the elections.
“We are also going to constitute a reconciliation committee to ensure that where we have grievances, we mend them and aggregate all the votes and support from Mr. President towards the 2027 general election,” the APC chairman said.
He added that the stakeholders were calling on Nigerians, party members and supporters of the President to work towards his re-election in 2027.
Yilwatda said another meeting would be held next week to intensify preparations and mobilisation for what he described as the “all-mother-of-rallies” in Lafia.
Earlier, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, who is the Grand Patron of the North-Central Grassroots Mobilisation Network, said the group was established specifically to mobilise votes across the geopolitical zone for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in 2027.
Akume said the mobilisation strategy would be driven by three major programmes, including the grand rally in Lafia, medical outreach programmes and a grassroots advocacy tour accompanied by town hall meetings across the zone.
According to the SGF, the advocacy campaign will cover the 19 senatorial districts in the six North-Central states and the Federal Capital Territory, taking the mobilisation drive directly to communities and grassroots supporters.
He said the medical outreach would provide services including comprehensive eye screening and treatment, refraction and prescription of spectacles, cataract assessment and selected cataract surgical services where appropriate facilities are available.
Other services listed by Akume included glaucoma screening and diabetic eye screening.
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The SGF said the mobilisation programme, developed by the National Coordinator of the Movement, Arch. Sonny Echono, his team and other stakeholders, had received the endorsement of the APC National Secretariat.
He said the objective was to strengthen the political mobilisation machinery of the North-Central and maximise the zone’s contribution to the President’s re-election campaign.
