AS part of its annual activities, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) on January 25 released its 2023 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), which gives a general climatic and weather forecast advisory during the year and the potential impacts on diverse sectors of the economy.
The SCP does not replace the daily and five-day weather forecast by NiMet throughout the year.
The NiMet SCP has become a critical component of planning by the government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). It also impacts other aspects of our national lives like prospective diseases outbreaks, the transport modes as well as how the farmers grow crops and keep animals.
This year’s SCP is likely to draw the attention of key stakeholders following the devastating floods witnessed in many parts of the country in 2022.
The 2022 floods led to the death of over 600 people and displaced over 2.4 million. It also affected investments in agriculture, transport infrastructure, houses, power lines worth millions of dollars,” Sen. Hadi Sirika, the Minister of Aviation said at the launch of the SCP.
In 2023, although the NiMet forecast has predicted a largely normal rainfall pattern, it also indicated a high possibility of flash floods in some states. NiMet Director-General, Prof. Mansur Matazu said there was likely to be elevated dry spell in some states of the north with potential adverse impact on planted crops.
According to the 2023 SCP, the rainfall onset date is predicted to be earlier than the long-term average in most parts of the country. However, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and Yobe in the north and Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo and Rivers in the south are likely to experience delayed onset.
The onset dates for parts of Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kwara, Oyo, Ogun and Lagos are likely to be near their long-term averages. Onset is expected to start from the coastal states of Bayelsa, Rivers and Akwa Ibom states in early March and around June/July in the northern states such as Sokoto, Kebi, Zamfara, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno.
NiMet also predicted an early End of Season (EoS) over parts of the south comprising Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Ogun and Lagos states. Parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa, and Kogi states are also predicted to have early end of season when compared to long-term average conditions.
However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun and Lagos State. The cessation is anticipated earliest in September over parts of Sokoto and Katsina states, while it would occur much later in December over most parts of the coastal region.
