WHEN, on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale offensive against the Islamic Republic of Iran, not a few people assumed that the first strikes, which came after weeks of military mobilisation and threats by US President Donald Trump, might have been enough to achieve more than 60 per cent of whatever goals pushed Trump, in particular, to commit such a world order anomaly, unprovoked.
The war, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”, which was declared because Trump had “a good feeling” that Iran was going to attack the US, has, however, turned out to be one that the two world powers may regret initiating, considering the extent of Iran’s response so far, its “no retreat, no surrender” stance, and the accompanying disruptions that have put the global economy on edge.
From Trump’s celebrated flip-flops on the reasons for the Iran invasion, it may be deduced that the calculation of the US President and his partner in aggression, Benjamin Netanyahu, was to bully Iran into total submission by wiping out its top officials, along with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But this backfired.
Not only was the propaganda of jubilant Iranians subdued by the intensity of outrage across the country and even beyond, but many analysts have observed that the US President’s fidgety posture during his speeches suggests inner heat fuelled by disrupted expectations.
As of now, the death toll in Iran has surpassed 1,000 as the US-Israel strikes continue, while asset damage cannot be readily estimated. But this may just be as devastating as the losses on the other side, if not less.
Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies put the estimated cost of the war to the US, just in the first 100 hours, at $3.7bn or about $900m a day, and only a small amount of this is in the budget, according to researchers.
More so, about $1.902bn worth of US military assets have been damaged or destroyed across the Middle East in just five days of war, according to estimates compiled by Anadolu Agency.
For Israel, its finance ministry has warned that the air conflict with Iran could damage the economy by NIS9.4bn or $3bn, weekly.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a stock market index of 30 of America’s biggest and most established companies, posted its steepest weekly percentage drop since early April 2025, dropping 0.95 per cent to 47,501.55 points. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, a stock market index which tracks the performance of 500 top companies listed on the US stock exchanges, also had its worst week since mid-October, losing 1.33 per cent to stand at 6,740.00 points.
These losses, despite the extent, are, however, small compared with the overall effects of global economic shocks. Since the hostilities were launched, the global benchmark oil price has jumped by 17 per cent to more than $85 per barrel, activating shock waves through financial markets. This is in addition to personal and institutional losses caused by flight disruptions across the Middle East and even Europe.
Although the US President has tried to paint the invasion in altruistic colours with the assertion that the strikes were in pursuit of “freedom for Iranians”, aside from the joint US-Israel missions of destroying Iran’s missile capabilities and preventing the nation from developing nuclear weapons, students of history can decode the underlying objectives.
This is why a good number of world leaders and intellectuals have continued to push for sanity in the global space, through respect for international laws, rather than dress the conflict in religious or moral garbs.
Assuming that the “rejection of every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambition”, among other sins said to have been committed by Iran were enormous enough to warrant the scale of war launched by both the US and Israel, the fact that Trump and his ally ignored the international legal order and flagrantly breached the United Nations Charter’s prohibition on aggression, is enough warning sign for the rest of the world that the US President, if not checked, will make this “turn by turn” aggression the new world order.
Now that the Almighty Trump has signalled his intention to intensify attacks on Iran, still without the clearance of the UN Security Council, and Iran, on the other hand, insists on a “fight to the finish” posture, world economies would need to re-strategise ahead of further shocks, considering regional peculiarities.
For Nigeria, lessons from Iran’s 1979 revolution, and the US-led Operation Desert Storm against Iraq in 1990/1991, show that the resultant rise in global oil prices could be more positive than negative, depending on the political will to channel increased oil earnings into economic activities that can cushion the effects of unavoidable rise in inflation and the ripple effects of increased domestic fuel costs. Already, Nigerians are feeling the heat of the current crisis with petrol now selling for between N1,000 and N1,190 per litre at retail outlets, from about N839/litre before the US-Iran tension.
While every rational observer should hope for a ceasefire, very soon, in the interest of world peace and global economic health, the 17 per cent rise in global oil prices to about $85 per barrel, which may reach $150 with continued shut down of energy production, could mean another oil windfall for Nigeria, considering the conservative $65 per barrel 2026 budget benchmark.
However, with the drums of election beating louder in Nigeria, one can only hope that this particular windfall will not “disappear” like the $12.2bn -$12.4bn generated in the wake of the 1990/1991 Gulf War, under the military regime of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida.
We expect the increased earnings above the budget benchmark to reduce pressure on the fiscal deficit, further improve federation account distributions, and help finance critical life-changing infrastructure.
Happily, President Bola Tinubu’s Executive Order has clipped the much-criticised corruption wings of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The President has also strengthened the nation’s fiscal policy framework with the slight adjustment of cabinet roles to accommodate a tested technocrat and seasoned economist, Taiwo Oyedele, as the Minister of State for Finance.
These are the right steps in the right direction that should be able to make lemonade out of the lemons of Operation Epic Fury and ease the pain of the poor majority. Who knows, Nigerians may just replace the fury in Trump’s war slogan with “patience” as the All Progressives Congress administration struggles to convince Nigerians for another shot at the Presidency!
- Dr Kolapo is publisher of The Point and her column, Compass, runs on the back page of the Punch newspaper on Monday. The column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Tuesday.