LAST December I played fortune teller and made some predictions for 2025. Now that we’re in the final weekend of the year, let me do something most Nigerian prophets never do – actually check the scorecard.
The fuel price call? I bombed it. Spectacularly.I said fuel wouldn’t drop below N900 all year. For most of 2025 I was looking smart, with prices hovering right in that range. Then early this month, Aliko Dangote decided to shock everyone – MRS announced they’d sell at N739 per litre. Nigerians got a rare Christmas gift. I got egg on my face.
Exchange rate prediction – nailed it. I called N1,500 to N1,800, and the naira spent most of the year playing ping-pong between those numbers. No trophy for that one though. Predicting naira weakness in Nigeria is like predicting rain in July.
The tax reform bill? Spot on. I said it would pass despite all the noise, and pass it did. President Bola Tinubu signed it into law, northern governors’ protests and all. Some sections are still generating heat, but the bill kicks in fully January 1st, 2026. The government needed the revenue too badly to let regional politics kill it.
Political endorsements – called it. I predicted All Progressive Congress (APC) governors and “leaders of thought” would fall over themselves endorsing Tinubu for 2027. Right on schedule, the APC made him their sole candidate, governors lined up like schoolchildren, and the praise-singing contest began. Same old circus, different ringmaster.
The Tinubu-Shettima wedge attempt? Saw that coming too. I warned about operators trying to drive a wedge between the president and vice president. During the zonal endorsements for Tinubu’s second term, Shettima’s name kept getting mysteriously skipped. Whispers started flying – Tinubu will drop him, Tinubu wants someone else, Shettima is finished. The rumour mill worked overtime. But it’s cooled off now, and Shettima looks likely to remain on the ticket. Politicians always reconcile when their interests align.
Cabinet reshuffles – half right. I predicted ministers would pack their bags. We didn’t get the wholesale clearout some expected, but we got movement. Geoffrey Nnaji (Science and Technology) and Mohammed Badaru (Defence) resigned, replacements got sworn in immediately. Not the bloodbath I hinted at, but heads rolled.
Anambra governorship – clean hit. I said Charles Soludo would win reelection despite the Peter Obi factor. Soludo swept all 21 local government areas. Politics is local, and Soludo played his home ground better than Obi’s star power could overcome.
Labour Party chaos – I’m claiming this one. I predicted Peter Obi and Alex Otti would find new political homes in 2025. Obi is openly flirting with African Democratic Congress (ADC )now. Nobody knows which platform he’ll use for 2027 – maybe not even Obi himself. Otti stayed put in Labour Party, so I only got half. But the party’s meltdown is exactly what I predicted – big egos, zero compromise, predictable implosion.
Ethnic and religious fault lines deepening? Sadly, yes. I said politicians would play the tribal card as temperatures rose. The tax reform bill debate alone proved me right – suddenly everything became north versus south, Christian versus Muslim, Arewa versus the rest. Same old script, deployed on schedule.
Security predictions – this one hurts because I got it right in the worst way. I said we’d see some improvement but troublemakers would attempt spectacular attacks. January and February looked promising. Then hell broke loose. Two school abductions in Kebbi and Niger. A general killed in Borno. Massacres in Benue, Plateau, Katsina, Zamfara. The military got better funding and equipment, but our security situation remained a nightmare. I wish I’d been wrong on this one.
Entertainment – mixed results. The Davido-Wizkid-Burna Boy stan wars raged on exactly as predicted. Social media remained their battlefield, their fans kept fighting proxy wars while the artists counted their money. I also predicted a Nigerian would win a Grammy in 2025 – Tems delivered, taking home Best African Music Performance at the 67th Grammy Awards. Our music industry keeps climbing higher.
Nollywood – another win. I said the movie industry would keep soaring with more blockbusters. Netflix Nigeria delivered: “To Kill A Monkey,” “The Herd,” “The Covenant.” Our storytelling keeps reaching new audiences, production quality keeps improving. We’re not playing anymore.
So what’s my hit rate? Seven clean wins, two half-wins, one spectacular miss. Not bad for someone claiming no divine visions – just pattern recognition and common sense.
The difference between me and the professional prophets? I’m actually checking my work. Most of them make bold predictions in January, then pray we forget by December. When their prophecies fail, they blame it on “insufficient prayer” or “spiritual warfare.” When mine fail, I just admit I got it wrong.
I was so confident about the fuel price one. But Dangote came through with the Christmas miracle, and I’m not mad about being wrong. Nigerians needed that win.
The scary part? Most of my political predictions came true. The endorsement circus, the wedge attempts, the tribal card deployment – it all played out like a badly written script we’ve watched a hundred times before. Our politics is so predictable it’s almost boring. Almost.
Security remains our biggest failure. I predicted improvement with occasional spectacular attacks. We got the spectacular attacks. The improvement part is still pending.
As we head into 2026, I’m tempted to make another round of predictions. But maybe I should quit while I’m ahead – or at least while my hit rate is decent.
Then again, where’s the fun in that? Nigerian politics is too entertaining to just watch without commentary. Same actors, same script, same ending – but somehow we keep buying tickets to this circus.
See you next December for another scorecard review. Hopefully with fewer misses and more fuel price surprises. Nigerians could use more of those.
- Nda-Isaiah is a political analyst based in Abuja and can be reached on jonesdryx@gmail.com. His syndicated column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Saturday.