PETER Obi has finally settled his wandering political feet in the African Democratic Congress. After all the noise and siddon-look, the former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party flagbearer is now ADC material. And just like that, we’re back to the same drama we’ve been watching since 1999: who gets the ticket, who steps down, who threatens to walk away.
The usual suspects have started their choir practice. Aisha Yesufu has drawn her line in the sand—if Obi runs as vice-president to anyone, she’ll work against that ticket. Pat Utomi is equally emphatic: the day Obi becomes anybody’s running mate is the day he withdraws his support. Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar, through his spokesman, has made it clear he’s not stepping aside for anyone.
I’m watching all this theater and wondering: when did party primaries become so terrifying that we now need people to withdraw before the race even starts?
Look, I’ve said it before on this page the ADC ticket was practically made for Atiku, same way the APC ticket was waiting for Muhammadu Buhari in 2014. That’s just political reality.
But here’s another reality: Atiku has every right to contest. So does Obi. So does any other qualified Nigerian who meets the party’s requirements.
What I find amusing is how Obi’s supporters think bullying tactics will work. You can’t push Atiku out with threats and social media warfare and expect his people to suddenly fall in line behind your candidate. That’s not how politics works, and it’s definitely not how you build the kind of coalition needed to unseat an incumbent party.
The APC succeeded in 2015 because for all their wahala they eventually got their aspirants to work together after transparent primaries. Buhari beat Atiku in those primaries. Atiku accepted it, went home, licked his wounds, and came back to work for the party. That’s how you win national elections in Nigeria. Not by issuing ultimatums before the first ballot is cast.
The southern argument goes like this: it’s our turn, we should be allowed to complete eight years. Fair point. Except there’s a small problem—Obi, if he wins, will also want those same eight years. Don’t believe any story about one-term presidents. Once you taste Aso Rock, the power broker mathematics changes completely.
And this is where Tinubu might actually have a quiet advantage.
Power brokers in the north may tolerate four more years of him just so power returns north in 2031. They’ve done the counting. They know if Obi or any southern candidate wins in 2027, they’re looking at 2035 before northern presidency comes back on the table.
Yesufu says she’ll work against any ticket where Obi is running mate. Utomi says the same thing. Atiku’s people are saying nobody is intimidating them into stepping down. My question is simple: what are all of you afraid of?
If Obi is as popular as his supporters claim, if he’s the messiah Nigerian masses are waiting for, what is there to fear from a primary election? Let him go head-to-head with Atiku. Let the party delegates decide. Let the process run its course.
That’s how democracy works. You don’t crown candidates before the race. You don’t issue threats. You don’t demand that stronger challengers withdraw because your preferred candidate might lose.
The APC succeeded in 2014 because they allowed competition. Buhari faced Atiku, Sam Nda-Isaiah, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Rochas Okorocha in those primaries. He beat them. Nobody was asked to step down before the race. Nobody threatened to work against the party if their candidate didn’t get automatic ticket.
This idea that Obi should be handed the ticket because… well, because his supporters will cry on social media… is exactly the kind of entitlement politics that keeps recycling the same mediocrity.
I suspect what we’re really seeing is panic. Obi’s camp knows Atiku is formidable. They know his national reach. They know his political machinery. They know his network spans decades. And they’re terrified that in a straight fight, their candidate might not win.
So instead of preparing for battle, they’re demanding the opponent surrenders before the first shot is fired.
Atiku is right to reject this nonsense. No aspirant should withdraw before primaries. Let them all run. Let the party members decide. Let the process test who has actual grassroots support versus who just has loud supporters on Twitter.
The ADC primaries will either make or break this party. If they handle it transparently, if they let all aspirants compete fairly, if they build consensus afterward they have a chance. A slim one, but a chance.
But if they allow bullying tactics and social media warfare to determine their candidate before delegates even vote, they’ll create exactly the kind of bad blood that guarantees failure. Atiku’s supporters won’t work for a ticket where their man was pushed out. Obi’s supporters will cry foul if their man loses primaries. And the whole thing collapses before it even starts.
The truth is brutally simple: Nigerian politics rewards structure, not sentiment. It rewards organisation, not online popularity. The north has the numbers. Any southern candidate who thinks he can win without substantial northern support needs to check the electoral arithmetic again.
That’s not endorsing any candidate. That’s just mathematics.
So here’s what should happen: all aspirants—Obi, Atiku, Rotimi Amaechi whoever else joins the race—should compete in transparent primaries. Let the best candidate emerge. Let the others accept the outcome and work together. Build the kind of coalition that can actually challenge the ruling party.
Threatening to walk away before the race even starts? That’s not principle. That’s political immaturity. And if that’s the quality of politics we’re bringing to 2027, we might as well start preparing for another four years of what we already have.
The ADC ticket isn’t anyone’s birthright. Not Obi’s. Not Atiku’s. Not anyone’s.Let them earn it.
- Nda-Isaiah is a political analyst based in Abuja and can be reached on jonesdryx@gmail.com. His syndicated column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Saturday.