WITH the 2027 general election drawing closer, the much-heralded coalition of opposition heavyweights under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is already facing serious questions about its viability after a poor outing in the recent by-elections.
The by-elections, conducted across 16 federal and state constituencies in 12 states on August 16 to fill vacant seats, were expected to showcase ADC’s renewed strength after the dramatic entry of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former governors Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi. Instead, the coalition’s performance revealed the gulf between elite endorsement and grassroots penetration.
Despite public anger from some quarters over inflation and fuel prices, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) once again proved its dominance, sweeping a majority of the contested seats with wide margins.
The results reinforced the APC’s reputation as Nigeria’s most formidable electoral machine, deeply entrenched in grassroots politics and state structures.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), though battered by defections and internal wrangling, secured important wins that underscored its continued relevance as the main opposition party.
By contrast, the ADC failed to make a significant impact in key battlegrounds. In Adamawa, Atiku’s stronghold, ADC candidates barely registered a presence.
In Anambra, where Peter Obi enjoys near-cult popularity, his late endorsement failed to sway voters as the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) retained dominance.
The by-elections were meant to be the ADC’s big test, a chance to prove that the entrance of political titans could breathe life into a struggling party.
Instead, analysts say, the coalition’s failure to convert political star power into actual votes shows the alliance may be more about shared grievances against the APC than shared grassroots structures.
“The ADC may have the faces, but not the feet,” one analyst quipped, pointing out that without ground-level networks, the coalition risks remaining a political experiment rather than a credible alternative.
James Kwen, a political analyst, put it bluntly: “The outcome of the by-elections showed that the coalition is not on ground. It needs to do more in the next two years if it is truly committed to wresting power from the APC.”
Not all observers agree the ADC should be written off yet. Some argue that the party is still embryonic and should not be judged solely by its first electoral outing.
Temitope Musowo, a public policy expert, cautioned against hasty conclusions: “I do not think ADC’s performance in the last by-election is a good premise to draw a conclusion on the standing of the party ahead of 2027. Don’t forget the PDP already has structures in place in many of those states, unlike the ADC which is still fledgling.”
Similarly, political analyst Kunle Okunade noted that the by-elections were largely contests between APC and PDP: “The ADC cannot make any difference in the by-elections because the party is still at its embryo level of galvanising public support and acceptance. It will take at least a year of rigorous mobilisation to gain the momentum required to challenge the APC.
Experts agree on one thing: if ADC is to mount a serious challenge in 2027, it must move beyond elite boardrooms and engage directly with voters at the grassroots.
Shola Okunwa, a lawyer, emphasised this point: “Politics is played at the grassroots. ADC must take the party to the people in rural areas. They also need to resolve their internal leadership issues before they can win the trust of Nigerians.”
For now, the ADC’s struggles highlight the opposition’s broader dilemma. Unless the coalition builds structures that rival those of the APC or strikes an alliance with the PDP, its 2027 ambitions may remain out of reach.
The by-elections were not just about filling vacant seats. They were a preview of the battle ahead. And for Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi, the message was clear: without grassroots power, star power alone won’t stop Tinubu in 2027.