THE by-elections have come and gone. INEC, the Independent body charged with the responsibility of guiding and gauging the elections has given its verdict, which gave the APC an overwhelming advantage. 12 out of 16. Anyone conversant with the politics of Nigeria, and fortunate enough to be guided by logic, would admit to the fact that, the results resemble the presumption.
Nigerians voted on the basis of their confidence on the parties. And on the strength of performance, the APC is continuously matching words with action. As far as performance is concerned, as a party, the APC is proving its worth, by telling the rest that, it has a natural aptitude for the fulfilment of promises.
Political pundits, particularly those pundits that take social media permutations too seriously, were the biggest victims of the results of the bye elections. Perhaps because of the media blitz and brouhaha about the muzzle of the over hyped African Democratic Congress, ADC, the thinking is that the coalition will give the ruling APC a serious stomach ache in the elections.
But lo and behold, the results came in the reverse. In the words of Osehobo Victor, the ADC was practically missing in action. The ADC performed so poorly, it answered correctly, to the tease that it is a coalition of confusion. In his attempt to make sense of their nonsensical performance, Osehobo Victor asked the question, what does this really mean?
He said and I quote: “For one, it shows how hard it is for a smaller party to cut through Nigeria’s big-party politics. In most of these states, the race was already locked between the ruling party and its main challenger. PDP and APC went toe-to-toe in Adamawa and Oyo. APC and NNPP slugged it out in Kano. APGA owned Anambra. In that kind of environment, ADC didn’t even get a look in.
The deeper issue, though, is identity. Where exactly does ADC see itself fitting in? Without a clear stronghold, they’re spread too thin. Yesterday’s results were a reminder that unless you have a base, a loyal pocket of voters you can build from, you’ll always end up as background noise on result sheets. And here’s the human truth: Nigerian voters tend to stick with the devil they know.
People want to win, and they don’t want to “waste” their votes. That mindset squeezes smaller parties even further to the margins. Unless ADC finds a way to convince people it’s worth taking a chance on them, these by-elections will keep reading the same way: APC, PDP, NNPP, APGA on top—ADC buried down the list”.
Much as no one can disagree with the position of Osehobo Victor on this, the peoples confidence in the natural ability of the APC to deliver on its promises must equally be taken with the seriousness it deserves. The results reflect the respect of the people for the party and what it stands for, particularly with regards the rule of law.
It is in the pursuit of such respect for the rule of law that the party was quick to raise the alarm, and even asked the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, to cancel the bye-election for Shanono/ Bagwai Constituency and the rerun election for Ghari Constituency in Kano State. That was because of the widespread violence and disruption.
Everyone had noticed that the elections were marred by extreme violence and disruption by armed thugs across several polling units in the affected areas. And the pictures of what happened are everywhere in the social media, where verifiable reports from Shanono and Bagwai Local Government Areas and Ghari constituency have voters fleeing polling areas, with deployed security personnel overwhelmed by the violence, making the prospects of a credible election impossible.
This is a worrisome situation for Kano particularly, because of the position of the state, as one that holds the nuts and bolts of Nigeria’s politics and population. As Nigeria’s oldest commercial centre, and one that holds the largest population in the country, Kano can not afford to be seen as the bedrock of political violence, because of the profound and far-reaching effects it would have on this huge population, with the potential for undermining social cohesion and eroding trust in institutions.
Also, because Kano is the laboratory for major political experiments, electoral violence in the state can hinder Nigeria’s political stability and development.
Analysts like Auwalu Anwar are already worried about the turn of events, such that he feels, the democratic processes of the system are being damaged by some ideological politics that are giving way to transactional politics.
And that in my opinion, is an antidote to the APC’s aptitude for accomplishment.
- Ibrahim is Publicity Director for the All Progressives Congress (APC).