WHEN the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was formally presented to the public on July 2, there was palpable excitement in the air as it was perceived as a possible replacement for the floundering and lacklustre opposition represented by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), whose members have been defecting in droves to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Nigerians waited to see the reenactment of the 2014 merger of three major political parties—Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)—that formed the APC. That coalition later won the 2015 presidential election that saw the historic unseating of a ruling party in Nigeria. Already, there are serious doubts whether ADC can survive, let alone replicate the APC magic of over a decade ago, for obvious reasons.
Less than one month after that “show of relevance,” the new party seems to have run out of steam. The gathering storm we thought it would become has since evaporated, and people we saw at the launch are either retreating or engaging in doublespeak to discredit the arrangement. Their old parties appear to be waxing stronger by the day, and their efforts to redirect energies through the formation of and joining the new party are yet to bear fruit.
Whether the governing APC has infiltrated the newest political party with moles to disorganise them, or some are regretting their actions and seeking quick retreat, or the overzealousness and ambitions of a few within are to blame, the ADC does not appear like a cohesive front capable of posing a credible threat to the party in government. Hence, President Bola Tinubu’s labelling of ADC as a “coalition of confusion” may just be a fitting description of the party. Indeed, there are confusions everywhere.
For a party that held so much hope for millions of disenchanted Nigerians who are tired of APC’s misrule and lack of clarity in an economic policy environment that has impoverished them, it is hoped that President Tinubu’s assertion will not prove to be a befitting epitaph for ADC.
Now, many forces are coalescing against it. Instead of the expected merger of participating political parties, elements holding those parties by the jugular—perhaps as their personal ATMs—are pushing back. After the initial euphoria, the ADC tempo has died down, indicating that what happened at the official unveiling was more or less a photo opportunity. I pray this is not the case, because a vibrant opposition nourishes democracy. It puts the government on its toes, serves as a watchdog, and ensures good governance to the advantage of the country and its people.
One by one, each of the parties represented at the public unveiling of the coalition has retreated to their cocoon, making disparaging statements about their new baby. One such person is LP vice presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Datti Baba Ahmed. He was at the coalition launch with his former principal, Peter Obi.
But in recent interviews with Channels and Arise television stations, he denounced and dismissed all that. He was not convinced about ADC, he said. He remains in LP, he revealed, and is concerned about loyalty while now on a mission to reconcile warring factions in LP, all in one breath. What sort of talk is that?
Meanwhile, Governor Makinde of Oyo State saw the exit of Atiku as good riddance to bad rubbish, saying those holding PDP down are gone. “The PDP is an institution. We have freedom of entrance and exit. Anyone that will hold PDP down, it is better for such an individual to quit.” Really? I thought it was the G-5, of which he was a prominent member, that brought the PDP down in the last election.
Politicians think the electorate has a short memory. Anyway, with Atiku’s exit, he hopes to realise his ambition of becoming the party’s presidential candidate. How far he can go in an opposition party apparently controlled by the ruling party remains to be seen. Obviously, he and his ilk would not relent until they retire Atiku from politics.
When the coalition came about, a mixed bag of relief and cautious optimism enveloped the polity. Relief, that for once the governing party’s predictions of a possible one-party state—after weakening its closest rivals, LP and PDP, through massive defection of key party figures like state governors—would not come to fruition after all. Cautious optimism, because like every human gathering, it would not be smooth sailing. Ambitions would clash, egos would be bruised, moles would infiltrate their ranks to disorganise, and many who were at the official unveiling were mere onlookers.
Although all these challenges were anticipated, as the weeks go by, the true colours of the coalition are beginning to unravel even as the commitment of members to the group’s interest is becoming suspect or questionable. In all, the biggest threat to the coalition remains the individual ambitions of key allies. Obi, Atiku, Amaechi, and even Datti Baba Ahmed have all thrown their hats in the ring, a duel that will potentially tear them apart.
Divided loyalty from coalition members poses another challenge. A few prominent people like Atiku might have resigned from their problematic parties, but many are still entangled with their old parties as if they were forced to the coalition for media attention only. How can one explain Datti Baba Ahmed’s doublespeak and confusing signals that serve no coherent purpose?
One is yet to see the massive collapse of smaller parties and personalities as witnessed in 2014. With ADC, there is no clarity and no consensus among members, leadership, and followers. The Obidient movement remains stuck with their idea of making Peter Obi President by reenacting the 2023 scenario when the party garnered over 10 million votes. Then the division between Julius Abure and the Nenadi Usman-led faction was not pronounced. Now can one faction of the party mobilise to deliver such votes again?
From Datti Baba Ahmed’s body language, it appears his efforts at reconciling the Abure faction were aimed at securing that faction’s support for his presidential ambition. It remains unclear whether Peter Obi will agree to be a vice presidential candidate if he remains in ADC. Something tells me he does not mind, but he is concerned about how his followers would react.
Former Vice President Atiku represents both a problem and solution to the coalition. Those who want to denigrate ADC call it Atiku’s coalition and a special purpose vehicle for him to realise his ambition of running again in 2027. That could be true, and herein lies the Atiku problem. However, the Atiku solution can be explored if the former VP is ready to sacrifice his ambition and play the role of kingmaker and godfather. That can only happen if the party zones the presidency to the South to square up with President Tinubu. But the question arises about the “winnability” of such a team and its capacity to face a formidable president with a huge war chest and the advantages of incumbency.
The ADC’s survival depends on its ability to transcend personal ambitions and forge genuine unity of purpose. Without this fundamental shift from individual aggrandisement to collective interest, the coalition risks becoming another footnote in Nigeria’s political history rather than the transformative force many hoped it would become.
How ADC will weather this storm and navigate to victory remains to be seen.
- Okino, is Chairperson of Blueprint Editorial Board, a fellow of the Nigerian Guild of Editors (FNGE), her syndicated column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Wednesdays. She can be reached via: zainabokino@gmail.com.