THAT is the verdict of former Manchester United first-team coach Rene Meulensteen on the club’s Europa League final against Tottenham on Wednesday.
Like all United fans, the Dutchman is coming to terms with a bitterly disappointing domestic campaign, and dreading the consequences of failure in Bilbao.
“It would be a silver lining. A win in the Europa League isn’t going to make up for the most disastrous season,” Meulensteen told BBC Sport, with United languishing 16th in the Premier League, and now condemned to their lowest top-flight finish for more than half a century.
“But if they don’t win it, why would we expect anything different next season? The trophy would free up some finances to get players in.
“If they don’t win it, we won’t be in Europe, and I really worry what the future is going to look like.”
With qualification for the lucrative Champions League the prize for the Europa League winners, and set against the backdrop of United’s long decline, it is easy to see why the match is being portrayed as such a defining moment at Old Trafford.
But just how significant is it really?
“Financially, it’s the most important match in the club’s history,” says football finance expert Kieran Maguire.
“Champions League participation is crucial, because it could generate over £100m from tickets, broadcast money, and sponsor bonuses.”
With four home games guaranteed, Maguire estimates that there could then be an additional £30m-£40m if United go deep into the competition.
While the benefits of being back in the expanded Champions League apply just as much to Spurs of course, United arguably need it more.
Spurs recorded an annual loss of £26m last year, while United’s deficit was £113m over the same period. That took their total losses to £300m over the past three years.
The sense of underperformance is even more stark given United generated total revenue of £651m last year, the fourth highest by any club in world football.
But due largely to the leveraged takeover by majority owners the Glazer family in 2005, the club are also more than £1bn in debt, which costs tens of millions of pounds a year to service. And that burden is set to increase in the years ahead because of refinancing and higher interest rates.
Indeed, United have admitted they have been at risk of failing to comply with Premier League profit and sustainability rules (PSR) that limit clubs’ losses.
In March, co-owner and petro-chemicals billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe told me the club would have gone bust by the end of the year if significant action had not been taken, bemoaning the financial burden of several players he had inherited who “were overpaid and not good enough”.
Meanwhile, fans are clinging to reports linking the club with moves for potential targets such as Liam Delap, Antoine Semenyo and Matheus Cunha. But if United fail to sell loaned-out, high-earning players such as Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Antony, acquisitions could hinge on what happens in Bilbao.
Luring new players to Old Trafford is likely to be much easier if the club can offer European football. And United have admitted that if they are to improve their underperforming squad, they need to cut outgoings, hence the hundreds of staff redundancies, and ticket price increases imposed by Ratcliffe – that have sparked protests by fans.
“United still have one of the highest wage bills in the Premier League. They have a squad which has cost more than £1bn, and many of those deals have been on credit, so they have outstanding instalments of over £300m that need to be paid,” says Maguire.
“So they need the cash from the Champions League to meet their ongoing financial obligations, and that’s before they start recruiting the players the manager wants. The additional revenue will put the club in a far stronger position in terms of a reboot.”
Such thoughts are echoed by former United defender Rio Ferdinand who told PA that victory could spark a “new era” for the club.
“With Manchester United, they need the money to recruit for this manager and it’s a vital period for him in that sense,” he said. “I do think it’s a chance to press the restart button and it will be a new era if these are the guys who managed to win.”
With each finishing position in the Premier League table worth around £3m, United have made around £30m less than the club’s executives would have been planning for.
For the Ineos hierarchy, a trophy would also help compensate for the £14.5m spent on the sacking of former manager Erik ten Hag – who was retained and then backed in the transfer market last summer – and the hiring and firing of former sporting director Dan Ashworth.
Under mounting scrutiny over such decisions, club bosses are also yet to explain how they will afford to build a proposed new stadium estimated to be costing at least £2bn.
At a time when Ratcliffe is reducing his other sports investments, including an Ineos sponsorship agreement with Spurs, in a challenging economic landscape for the chemicals industry, a first European trophy since taking over at Old Trafford would be a very timely boost.
Winning in Bilbao would also come at a cost. With player contracts heavily incentivised, Maguire estimates that qualifying for the Champions League will also mean United could face having to pay out 25% extra on wages. But he maintains that the Champions League would still be “transformative”.
Manager Ruben Amorim hinted as much when admitting that the Champions League was more important to him than winning the Europa League. “The best way to help us to get to the top in a few years is the Champions League, not the cup,” he said.
When asked if being out of Europe next season might actually help by giving him more time to work on his squad, he was clear that losing the final against Spurs would be “really bad… the patience of the fans and you guys [the media] next year if we don’t win it is going to be on the limit”.