NOW that the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria is done and dusted, all attentions are directed at the coming Saturday, when the governoship and state parliamentary elections would hold. This Gubernatorial election is important to every state, but methinks it’s most important to the people of Kano state, and I would take time to explain in simple terms.
Kano is Nigeria’s oldest commercial centre, the biggest reservoir of electoral votes, crude votes, and the state that is respected for exhibiting the highest maturity, forbearance and an uncommon tranquillity in politics. Yes, despite playing the decider, on who wins the Presidential election in Nigeria, courtesy of it’s position as the most populous state in the country, Kano has never had the chance to produce an elected President. It had produced military Heads of state quite all right, in the persons of Gen. Murtala Mohammed and Gen.Sani Abacha, but even at that, these glorious sons of the state, have never been permitted to come back home alive. They all died on duty, at the State House.
According to the official estimates taken in 2016 by the National Bureau of Statistics Kano State was the largest state by population in Nigeria. At the end of the last voter registration exercise, Kano emerged in the second position, with 5,927,565 m, while Lagos has 7,060,195 million. Now let’s leave the statistics and talk about the importance of the political economies of Lagos and Kano, as they relate to these arithmetic.
Lagos is what it is today courtesy of the grace of God and the advantage of having a leader who understands the ills of playing opposition politics, and the advantage of aligning with the main stream. Because of Tinubu’s visionary leadership, Lagos is now assessed as the fourth-highest GDP in Africa. Lagos is also rated as the major educational and cultural centre in the Sub Saharan Africa. The state of Lagos contributes 30% to Nigeria’s GDP. This is remarkable, considering Lagos is home to only 10% of the population of Nigeria. The majority of Nigeria’s manufacturing is based in Lagos, as well as many service industries such as finance.
When juxtaposed with Kano, a lot of similarities can be drawn, with Kano having the advantage of population, a long polish in politics and a wider popularity in traditional arts and crafts. In commerce, Kano has long been known for its leatherwork, including tanned goatskins, which were sent to north Africa, and referred to in Europe as morocco leather. Like Lagos, Kano WAS also an industrial hub.
I used the word was in capital letters because the status of Kano has changed backward, due to the absence of the kind of visionary leadership enjoyed by Lagos. Had Kano gotten leaders like Tinubu, who aligned Lagos with the centre, and put’s it on a development plan that lays out the overall direction for the state, and primed it to becoming Africa’s model mega city, as well as an economic and financial hub, that is safe, secure, functional and productive, the story would have been dramatically different from what obtains now.
As the country warms up for the gubernatorial elections this coming Saturday, the people of Kano must wake up from their slumber of yesteryears. The need to think like Lagos, by working towards aligning with the mainstream politics need not be over emphasized. As the state with the highest population and the second largest voting capacity, vis a vis an old history of commerce and polished political pedigree, staying on the opposition could be calamitous, or even politically catastrophic. Lagos made it by not remaining with the minority.
Looking at the performance of the NNPP in the Presidential election, the general permutation is that it stands the chance of winning the governorship election. That is if everything work like it did then. But in politics, things don’t work the same way all the time. Changes come almost per second per second. And precisely that is where I want to put a word or two, to those that may not understand the imperative of not going the wrong way.
Should NNPP win, Kano would be like Anambra state, a minority state belonging to a minority party. What that means is that, it would not be in a position to be enjoying the privileged largesse that is often accorded those that are aligned with the centre. In the short run, it would massage the ego of some people, or better put, one person. But in the long run, it would ruin the self-worth of the state.
If history is anything worth taking into consideration, it would not be long before harm come the way of the harmonious relationship between the NNPP Governor and his godfather. The paraphernalia of office would compulsorily induce the feeling of self-importance on the Governor, such that he may begin to renege on some commitments. Yes, he would change, either to align with the new benefactor in charge of the centre, and keep reaping the benefit of the largesse, or commence cutting on the commitments to the godfather, whom bootlickers would tell him, is only using him as a puppet. History has shown that in most cases, the puppet’s position is not sustainable, even by the psychopath among the sycophants.
As an APC apologist, my wish is to see the victory of the party at the election. But even if that does not happen immediately, I believe, it would happen eventually, due to the inevitability of the traditional, or conventional cross carpeting. It therefore behoves on all stakeholders, to be collectively assertive, towards ensuring an alliance with the APC, so that Kano does not become relegated to the status of an opposition state.
Ibrahim is the director, publicity for the APC.
