PEP Guardiola strode into the Bernabeu Stadium’s palatial surroundings knowing Manchester City must overturn the odds – and logic – in a special place that usually reserves its miracles for Real Madrid.
He has known every emotion in this legendary arena on a Champions League journey that has brought him here with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
And on Wednesday, Guardiola will once more appear alongside his friend and great adversary, Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti, beneath those towering stands knowing victory will rank among his finest achievements.
Guardiola rates City’s chances of overturning a 3-2 deficit from the first leg of this play-off to reach the last 16 as “1%”.
And, to gauge the opinions of locals in a city that has held more Champions League victory parades than any other, they feel Guardiola is erring on the side of optimism.
Guardiola was in measured mood when he appeared in front of the media at the Bernabeu, an environment that represented enemy territory during his time as player and coach with Barcelona – and his message was crystal clear.
“We have to make it almost the perfect game,” he said. “We have to attack. We have to score goals. This is the idea.”
Guardiola is determined City will not leave the Bernabeu wondering or with regrets, saying: “We must play with courage. We must be ourselves. It will need incredible courage and we must play to win.
“We could still lose, but we have to show that courage and be ourselves. We have to play so well, especially after the result we took away in the first leg.”
Opta statistics rate City’s chances of advancing at a more optimistic 19.8%, but those percentages must be viewed through the prism of Real’s history in this tournament and the muscle memory that kicks in for the 15-time winners when it matters.
Guardiola’s record with City against Real is chequered, though it started with victory in the last 16 in 2020, the two legs being played six months apart because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The most bitter moment came two years later when City led by two goals on aggregate in the 90th minute of the semi-final second leg at the Bernabeu, only for Rodrygo to score twice within seconds, Karim Benzema’s injury-time penalty sending Real on to eventual victory over Liverpool in the final in Paris.
When Guardiola, as Manchester City manager, claimed his third Champions League crown in 2023, after winning with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, Real were thrashed 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-final, the Spanish champions then prevailing on penalties last season.
He said: “I have some incredible memories here – sometimes good ones, sometimes not so good.
“We know at this stage, and in this stadium, the pressure is there – but you get that in Milan, in Barcelona, at Anfield. You have to suffer at these places, but you have to reduce those moments.”
Real’s remarkable win against City in 2022 is the sort of sporting lightning strike Guardiola will seek to turn back on them, but he must do it with a fading team that has lost its domestic supremacy after winning a historic four successive Premier Leagues, and now faces the prospect of going out of the Champions League before the last 16 for the first time in 12 years.
The wily Ancelotti was not taking Guardiola’s bait about percentages when he spoke in Madrid on Tuesday, saying: “He doesn’t really think that. We don’t think we have a 99% chance. We have a small advantage – and we have to take advantage of that.”
Guardiola responded: “For the first time he didn’t believe me. I always say what I think, and this time you don’t believe me.”
Statistics pile up like giant obstacles in front of City’s route to the last 16, explaining why Real are overwhelming favourites after two goals in a late surge gave them victory at Etihad Stadium.
It was the 40th time Real have won the first leg of a European knockout-stage tie away from home, progressing on 37 of the previous 39 occasions.
City’s defeat, meanwhile, was the fifth time they have lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout-stage tie, going on to be eliminated on the previous four occasions.
For Ancelotti, this tournament’s greatest coach with five wins, he will be meeting Guardiola in the Champions League for the 10th time, on eight occasions with Real against City. The Italian has won four of their nine meetings, never losing at home, winning two games and drawing two.
Of more recent significance is that to unseat the holders, City will have to alter poor form in the competition after losing their past three away games to Sporting, Juventus and Paris St-Germain.
Guardiola’s spirits will be lifted by Saturday’s 4-0 win over Newcastle United which included a hat-trick inside 14 first-half minutes for new Egyptian signing Omar Marmoush, while Erling Haaland demonstrated his quality with both goals in the first-leg defeat, his first against Real Madrid.
Haaland has been prolific in the Champions League, scoring 49 goals in 48 games. If he scores at the Bernabeu, he will become the fastest player to 50 goals in appearances and age, at 24 years and 213 days.
It could even be a Champions League farewell to Manchester City for modern greats of the club such as Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and goalkeeper Ederson, while others such as Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic are also in their 30s.
Guardiola would not be drawn as he said: “I would like to answer this but it will be at the end of the season. We still have a lot to play for, to qualify for the Champions League next season, we are still there in the Champions League this season. We have the FA Cup and the Club World Cup.”
Silva added: “If you had told me at the start of the season that we would be in this position in the Champions League and the Premier League I wouldn’t have believed you. We deserve to be in this complicated situation because of where we finished.
“We have to believe. We still believe things can go our way, but this season is certainly a lesson for the future.”
For Manchester City, that future is now – in the forbidding, unforgiving surroundings of the Bernabeu on Wednesday.
And if Guardiola can overcome those “1%” odds in this footballing cathedral, it will rank alongside the best results of his career.