NIGERIA’s crude oil export earnings slumped by N3.18 trillion in the first half of 2025 despite a steady rise in production volumes, according to the latest Foreign Trade Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Figures analysed by News Point Nigeria show that crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn between January and June 2025, an 11.3% decline compared with N28.10tn recorded in the same period of 2024. This drop came even as crude output surged by 12.7% year-on-year, highlighting a paradox where increased production failed to translate into higher revenue.
In the first quarter of 2025, crude exports fell sharply to N12.96tn, down from N15.49tn in Q1 2024, a loss of N2.53tn (16.3%). The second quarter saw a smaller drop, with export earnings sliding by N642bn (5.1%) from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025.
Crude oil’s share of Nigeria’s total exports also weakened significantly, falling from 80.8% in Q1 2024 to 62.9% in Q1 2025, and further dropping to 52.6% in Q2 2025, compared to 71.2% in the same quarter last year.
By contrast, non-crude oil exports more than doubled to N18.43tn in H1 2025, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a massive 109.6% increase. Non-oil exports alone rose by 66%, from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, helping Nigeria record a 17.5% jump in overall exports to N43.35tn.
Imports climbed more modestly by 6.9%, reaching N30.71tn, improving Nigeria’s trade balance by 54.6% to N12.64tn.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria pumped 266.9 million barrels of crude oil in H1 2025, up from 236.7 million barrels in the same period last year. This represents an additional 30.2 million barrels, or a 12.7% increase.
However, global crude prices have been under pressure, slipping below the federal government’s budget benchmark of $75 per barrel earlier this year, a factor analysts say is partly to blame for the drop in earnings.
Some industry experts also point to rising domestic absorption, with significant volumes diverted to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude supply arrangement, potentially reducing Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows.
In the first four months of 2025 alone, the federal government sold crude worth N219.38bn to the Dangote refinery, according to internal documents from the NNPCL submitted at FAAC meetings.
Despite revenue concerns, the oil sector recorded major progress in reducing losses. The NUPRC reported that Nigeria lost 2.04 million barrels of crude between January and July 2025, a 50.2% reduction from the 4.1 million barrels lost in 2024.
Average daily losses fell to 9,600 barrels per day, the lowest since 2009. This represents a 94.57% drop compared to the 102,900 barrels lost daily in 2021, when Nigeria suffered a record 37.6 million barrels in annual losses due to theft and vandalism.
The Commission credited the improvement to tighter regulatory oversight, security collaborations, and the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), alongside kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to protect oil assets.
Industry stakeholders have called on the federal government to diversify export earnings further, incentivise local refining capacity, and ensure crude allocations to domestic refineries do not undermine foreign exchange inflows.
