ONCE seen as Nigeria’s gold standard for credible and professional statistics, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is increasingly under public scrutiny,.
News Point Nigeria reports that Nigerians across economic classes are voicing doubts over recent NBS figures on inflation, employment, and crime claiming they no longer reflect the reality on the ground.
This erosion of trust has been particularly evident since early 2025, when the NBS introduced a rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) that showed inflation plummeting from 34.8% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January.
While the announcement suggested a welcome drop, Nigerians at the markets saw no relief.
“I don’t need statistics to know that food prices are rising,” said Blessing Umeh, a petty trader in Abuja. “Rice, yam, even cooking gas has gone up. So how can they say inflation is dropping?”
Simon Samson, an economist and lecturer at a private University, explained that inflation figures can be misunderstood.
“An inflation drop from 25% to 24% doesn’t mean prices are falling, it just means they’re rising a little slower,” he noted. “But the bigger problem is perception. If the public stops believing your numbers, your institution loses relevance.”
That perception hit rock bottom with the release and sudden disappearance of the NBS’s 2024 Crime Experienced and Security Perception Survey. The report claimed over 614,000 Nigerians were killed and 2.2 million kidnapped in a single year.
Security analysts immediately questioned the data’s plausibility. “That’s 1,700 deaths and over 6,200 abductions every day,” said security analyst Bulama Bukarti. “It’s just not credible.”
The backlash was swift. The report vanished from the NBS website, no clarification followed, and Nigerians were left with more questions than answers.
NBS’s revised unemployment methodology, introduced in 2023, has been another major flashpoint. The agency now counts anyone engaged in any economic activity for at least one hour a week as “employed.”
In Q2 2024, this new model led NBS to announce a national unemployment rate of just 4.3% down from 5.3% the previous quarter. But to the millions of underemployed Nigerians working sporadic jobs or running petty street-side hustles, the numbers felt like an insult.
The Nigerian Labour Congress called it a “voodoo document designed to mislead,” arguing that the methodology, though globally accepted, doesn’t reflect the Nigerian context.
More recently, the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP has sparked similar doubts. Official reports suggest growth, but businesses tell a different story one of layoffs, closures, and rising costs.
Manufacturing is slowing, and MSMEs are struggling to survive under the weight of energy costs, insecurity, and forex volatility.
Critics are beginning to ask if the NBS is being politicised. Once praised for its independence, the agency now faces suspicions of adjusting or withholding uncomfortable data.
Samson insists the problem isn’t just internal: “Yes, NBS must remain above politics. But the public also needs help interpreting data. It’s a two-way street.”
Nonetheless, the agency’s silence on controversial figures and failure to adequately explain drastic shifts in methodology have led many to believe that transparency is fading fast.
With faith in official data dwindling, many Nigerians are turning to their own indicators: how much they spend at the market, the cost of transportation, and the weight of their empty wallets.
In a country battling inflation, insecurity, and unemployment, reliable data is not a luxury it’s a necessity.
It informs policy, guides investment, and holds governments accountable. Without it, Nigeria risks flying blind.
The question now is whether the NBS can regain the trust it once enjoyed or whether the nation’s numbers will continue to be met not with analysis, but with suspicion.