IT is time to stop talking about the risk that the war in Gaza will spread elsewhere in the Middle East. It has already happened.
Hopes for containing what is happening rest on the fact that it is still relatively low-level, compared to the worst-case scenarios of regional war.
The US and British attacks on the Houthis in Yemen are not just, as ministers in London have suggested, about the freedom of navigation and world trade.
They are directly linked to events in Gaza and represent an escalation of the crisis that is gripping the region.
The Houthis immediately vowed to respond. It is also entirely possible that pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria will increase the action they are taking against the American forces in the region.
If that theatre heats up more, and US forces retaliate, it will be harder for the American diplomacy effort to avert all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia and political movement backed by Iran.
The Houthis are also part of the network of allies and proxies, the so-called axis of resistance, that Iran has constructed to give it forward defence against its enemies.
They are getting increasingly sophisticated weapons from Iran, but it is best to think of them as allies rather than Tehran’s proxy.
I have spent quite a bit of time with the Houthis in Yemen and they are people who are highly independently minded. They will relish conflict with the Americans. They want to be part of this war. What has been happening suits both the Houthis and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran has beefed up their capabilities and the kind of firepower that the Houthis have at their disposal. That includes anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles they have fired at Israel as well as attack drones – the same sort that Iran supplies to Russia to use against Ukraine. They are well-armed.
It is nothing like the naval capacity that they are facing from the US, UK and other members of the coalition the Americans have assembled in the Red Sea. But the threat the Houthis pose is less about the physical damage they might cause and more about the danger to international navigation.
In December, they hijacked a ship and forced it into one of their ports. They have also fired directly at ships and caused some damage, although they have not sunk any vessels.
