LATE President Muhammadu Buhari stood as the towering figure of Northern politics, wielding an enduring influence unmatched in Nigeria’s modern democratic journey. From his first presidential bid in 2003 to his triumphant 2019 victory, Buhari commanded unwavering loyalty across the North, particularly in the North West, where his name alone could summon millions to the ballot box.
Even as critics argued in 2023 that his commitment to the APC campaign had waned, his silent clout still helped deliver crucial Northern votes to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
But with his passing in July 2025, Nigeria’s political terrain has been dramatically altered. For the first time since 2015, the APC faces an election without its talisman. As the 2027 contest draws near, the scramble to inherit Buhari’s formidable bloc of loyalists and allies has intensified. News Point Nigeria explores the emerging battle to control Buhari’s votes, networks, and enduring influence.
President Tinubu moved swiftly to honour Buhari after his passing. He directed Vice President Kashim Shettima to accompany Buhari’s body from London to Katsina, presided over a state burial in Daura, declared a national holiday in his honour, and even renamed the University of Maiduguri after him.
Since then, Tinubu has worked assiduously to consolidate Buhari’s bloc. He has held meetings with Buhari’s political family, including members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Buhari Support Groups. At one such gathering, he admitted frustration from loyalists who felt sidelined but appealed for patience.
“I couldn’t appoint everybody that I could have appointed, thank you for your patience till now. I still have some slots for ambassadorial positions that too many people are craving for, but it’s not easy stitching together those names,” Tinubu told them.
His visit to Kaduna last weekend added fuel to speculation. While in the state for the wedding of Nasirudeen Yari, son of Senator Abdul’aziz Yari, Tinubu paid a courtesy call on Aisha Buhari, the widow of the late president. Though framed as a gesture of respect, the symbolism of the visit carried unmistakable political undertones.
But not everyone is convinced by Tinubu’s overtures. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) accused him of exploiting Buhari’s death to score political points.
“The choreographed Federal Executive Council tribute, complete with a publicised appearance by the late President’s grieving son, was not a demonstration of genuine respect. It was a calculated public relations stunt by an unpopular government,” the ADC declared.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, long considered Buhari’s greatest Northern rival, is also positioning himself as the region’s new political anchor.
Some experts say Atiku is leveraging the economic hardship and growing Northern disenchantment with Tinubu to cast himself as the rightful heir to Buhari’s mantle.
He has intensified engagements with Northern elites and Buhari’s allies, including a recent meeting with Isa Ali Pantami, Buhari’s influential former minister of communications.
Interestingly, Peter Obi also sought an audience with Pantami, signalling his own attempt to woo Northern religious and political heavyweights.
Former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai has emerged as a wildcard in the unfolding drama. Once a key ally of both Buhari and Tinubu, El-Rufai was controversially denied a ministerial slot in Tinubu’s cabinet. Since then, his criticism of the administration has grown sharper, earning him admiration from Northern youths.
El-Rufai even claimed that his defection from the APC was preceded by consultations with Buhari himself. Yet, Buhari had publicly reaffirmed his loyalty to the ruling party earlier in March, saying: “I am an APC member and I like to be addressed as such. I will try to popularise the party by all means.”
Buhari’s absence has left a political vacuum. His networks and structures remain valuable political currency, but no figure has emerged as the uncontested heir.
Within the defunct CPC bloc, divisions are stark. One faction, led by Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, supports Tinubu’s re-election. Another faction, aligned with Atiku, recently gathered at his Abuja residence.
In a widely circulated video, former CPC state chairmen pledged loyalty to Atiku and their readiness to form a strong coalition under the ADC.
Prominent Buhari-era ministers and aides have also crossed over to the opposition, including Rotimi Amaechi, Abubakar Malami, Rauf Aregbesola, Solomon Dalung, and Lauretta Onochie.
Notably, Aregbesola, once Tinubu’s protégé has since become the National Secretary of the ADC and is busy inaugurating new party chapters, even declaring that the ADC will defeat Tinubu in Lagos by 2027.
Amaechi, too, has openly voiced his discontent: “If the government is failing the country, you don’t just go along because you’re in the same party. People are dying. People are starving. I myself am feeling the effects of hunger.”
Political observers agree that Buhari’s men are fractured, and the implications for 2027 are enormous.
According to Kunle Okunade, “It is clear some of them know President Tinubu does not want to work with them, so they have already taken their position by joining the opposition. It’s about survival and political relevance.”
Another analyst, Temitope Musowo, stressed that the divisions are a “minus” for Tinubu: “Millions of votes Tinubu got in 2023 from Buhari’s bloc will now be split. They said 12 million votes are at stake, but it is apparent they would be divided now.”
He added that political re-alignments were inevitable before 2027, but the CPC bloc’s split has weakened the APC’s once-solid Northern fortress.
For Tinubu, inheriting Buhari’s bloc could mean re-election. For Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai, it could be the key to victory. The struggle is no longer about Buhari the man, but Buhari the myth, the enduring symbol of Northern political unity.
As Nigeria edges toward 2027, one truth stands tall: Buhari may be gone, but his shadow still dominates the battlefield for Nigeria’s future.