UNITED Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed increasing concern over the escalating war of words and deadly border clashes between Israel’s military and Lebanon’s Hezbollah fighters.
UN peacekeepers are working to calm the situation and prevent “miscalculation” after both sides heightened their rhetoric and raised the possibility of full-scale conflict, he said on Friday.
“One rash move – one miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border and, frankly, beyond imagination,” Guterres told reporters. “Let’s be clear: The people of the region and the people of the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
A UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL, as well as unarmed technical observers known as UNTSO, have long been stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities along the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line.
“UN peacekeepers are on the ground working to de-escalate tensions and help prevent miscalculation,” Guterres said. “The world must say loudly and clearly: immediate de-escalation is not only possible – it is essential. There is no military solution.”
Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones into Israel since it launched the war on Gaza last October with the Israelis responding with deadly air strikes and heavy artillery fire. Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands displaced along the border.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant have previously pledged to “turn Beirut into Gaza”. This week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned of “no restraint and no rules” if Israel launches a major attack on Lebanon.
Analysts have said it remains unclear if both sides are upping their threats as deterrence, or if they are actually on the brink of all-out war. In terms of Israel’s war on Gaza, one expert said it is not accurate to compare Palestinian armed groups with Lebanese Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is more trained, more organised with even more lethal weapons compared to Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing. And for this reason, I think the Israelis will pay a huge price for something they can avoid,” Hassan Barari, a professor of international affairs at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.
Orna Mizrahi, a former official in Israel’s National Security Council, said none of the options are good for the country.
“But the big question is, how much can Israel suffer under this attack? I think most of the government doesn’t really want to get into a war, but it’s possible that we are getting there,” she said.
In Lebanon, Nasrallah’s comments left many bracing for a wider war. But some diplomats and analysts said his threats are an attempt to match the escalating rhetoric from Israel.
“To me, now this is part of a deterrent strategy,” said Hubert Faustmann, professor of history and international relations at the University of Nicosia.