RUSSIA is doubling down on its claims on Ukraine, in an apparent effort to demonstrate some military achievement in 2025 at home and to influence peace talks with the United States.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters last Friday in a year-end news conference that Moscow’s forces had seized Siversk in the eastern region of Donetsk and Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region.
Putin also claimed Russian forces held at least half of Lyman and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk, and Hulyaipole in the southern Zaporizhia region – all front-line towns.
Ukraine observers begged to differ. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, said satellite and open-source visual evidence contradict Putin.
“ISW has observed no evidence to confirm any of these claimed seizures or extensive advances and has only observed evidence indicating a Russian presence [either through infiltration missions or assaults] in 7.3 percent of Hulyaipole and 2.9 percent of Lyman,” it wrote.
The ISW also estimated Russian advances had claimed no more than 5 percent of Kostiantynivka.
“Even Russian milbloggers’ [military reporters’] claimed advances do not support many of Putin’s claims,” the ISW said, with milbloggers claiming that “Russian forces have seized a maximum” of about 7 percent of Lyman and 11 percent of Kostiantynivka.
The Kremlin has also claimed to be in complete possession of Kupiansk in Kharkiv and Pokrovsk in Donetsk. The ISW estimated Russia possesses no more than 7.2 percent of Kharkiv, and Ukraine’s commander-in-chief has said Ukrainian forces had pushed Russia out of 16 square kilometres (6.1 square miles) of Pokrovsk.
On December 18, Russian commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov gave an end-of-year report to foreign military officials, claiming Russia seized 6,300sq km (2,432sq miles) of Ukraine this year, slightly more than the 6,000sq km (2,300sq miles) Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov had claimed a week earlier.
But the ISW estimated Russia had seized no more than 4,984sq km (1,900sq miles) containing 196 settlements, rather than the 300 that Russian officials have claimed.
Putin did make one truthful claim to have seized the eastern town of Siversk.
The spurious Russian assertions have come over a two-week period when US and Ukrainian negotiators have intensified talks on a peace plan, a process that ended on Monday after three days of talks in Florida.
“We sense that America wants to reach a final agreement, and from our side, there is full cooperation,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a Tuesday evening address to his people.
Yet the 20-point plan he made public on Wednesday morning revealed that on the most sensitive issue of territory, there was no agreement between the US and Ukraine.
Russia has demanded that Ukraine cede the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson in full, in addition to Crimea.
Ukraine refuses. Europe has suggested leaving a territorial discussion for after a full ceasefire.