A MILITARY alliance between Somalia and Egypt is ruffling feathers in the fragile Horn of Africa, upsetting Ethiopia in particular – and there are worries the fallout could become more than a war of words.
The tensions ratcheted up this week with the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 military aeroplanes in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, signalling the beginning of the deal signed earlier in August during a state visit by the Somali president to Cairo.
The plan is for up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to join a new-look African Union force at the end of the year, with another 5,000 reportedly to be deployed separately.
Ethiopia, which has been a key ally of Somalia in its fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants and is at loggerheads with Egypt over a mega dam it built on the River Nile, said it could not “stand idle while other actors take measures to destabilise the region”.
Somalia’s defence minister hit back, saying Ethiopia should stop “wailing” as everyone “will reap what they sowed” – a reference to their diplomatic relations that have been on a downward spiral for months.
It all comes down to the ambitions of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who wants his landlocked country to have a port. Ethiopia lost its access to the sea when Eritrea seceded in the early 1990s.
On New Year’s Day, Mr Abiy signed a controversial deal with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a 20km (12-mile) section of its coastline for 50 years to set up a naval base.
It could also potentially lead to Ethiopia officially recognising the breakaway republic – something Somaliland is pushing hard for.
Somaliland broke away from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but Mogadishu regards it very much as part of its territory – and described the deal as an act of “aggression”.
Somalia fears such a move might set a precedent and encourage other countries to recognise Somaliland’s independence, geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton-Harvey told the BBC.
He added that neighbouring Djibouti was also worried it could harm its own port-dependent economy, as Ethiopia has traditionally relied on Djibouti for imports.
In fact in an attempt to deescalate tensions, Djibouti’s foreign minister has told the BBC his country is ready to offer Ethiopia “100%” access to one of its ports.
“It will be in the port of Tadjoura – 100km [62 miles] from the Ethiopia border,” Mahmoud Ali Youssouf told BBC Focus on Africa TV.
This is definitely a change of tune for as recently as last year, a senior presidential adviser said Djibouti was reluctant to offer its neighbour unfettered access to the Red Sea.