NIGERIA’s persistent electricity crisis has continued unabated as the 6,000 megawatts generation target set by Adebayo Adelabu has now missed three separate deadlines, leaving millions of Nigerians grappling with prolonged blackouts.
News Point Nigeria reports that when Adelabu assumed office as Minister of Power in August 2023, he assured Nigerians that electricity generation would reach 6,000MW by the end of that year, promising that “the lights would come on.” For many citizens accustomed to decades of unmet expectations in the power sector, the pledge was met with cautious optimism.
However, Nigerians are still waiting, as current electricity supply stands at just 3,331MW, according to data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator, a figure barely sufficient to power a city the size of Lagos, let alone a nation of over 200 million people.
The shortfall has had far-reaching consequences, leaving households struggling with intense heat and businesses incurring heavy losses. The World Bank estimates that power outages cost Nigeria about $29 billion annually, roughly 10 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.
During an oversight visit by the Senate Committee on Power led by Eyinnaya Abaribe, Adelabu reiterated the federal government’s commitment to achieving the 6,000MW target by the end of 2024, assuring lawmakers that plans had been finalised to boost generation capacity.
Despite these assurances, the target was not met. On December 28, 2024, peak generation reached 5,229MW, while the highest ever recorded output stood at 5,801.6MW both figures falling short of the promised benchmark.
The minister later acknowledged the failure, attributing it to vandalism affecting critical transmission infrastructure.
“Indeed, a promise of 6,000 megawatts was made, and we believed it was achievable based on our efforts. Unfortunately, the actions of vandals set us back. We are working hard to ensure more supply to the grid,” said Bolaji Tunji, the minister’s Special Adviser on Strategic Communication and Media Relations, on December 29, 2024.
The target was subsequently shifted to 2025, and on March 2, 2025, Nigeria briefly achieved a historic peak generation of 6,003MW, the highest in the country’s history sparking optimism within the sector.
Tunji announced that Nigeria also recorded a peak evacuation of 5,801.84MW and a daily maximum energy output of 128,370.75 megawatt-hours.
“On March 2, 2025, Nigeria achieved a record available power generation of 6,003 megawatts, the highest in the nation’s history,” he said.
However, the milestone proved short-lived, as generation capacity soon dropped below 5,500MW. Subsequent data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator and other agencies showed that output has hovered around 5,000MW since then.
By the time the third deadline ,March 2026 arrived, electricity supply to distribution companies had declined to 3,131MW. The Nigerian Integrated System Operator and distribution companies attributed the fluctuations, which ranged between 2,000MW and 2,900MW, to persistent gas shortages as a result of Middle East war.
Amid the worsening situation, power distribution companies have repeatedly apologised to consumers, promising improvements that have yet to materialise.
Speaking at a recent press conference in Abuja, Adelabu publicly apologised to Nigerians over the ongoing hardships.
“I want to apologise to Nigerians, officially now, as the minister of power, for this temporary issue that is causing hardship, especially during this dry season when there is so much heat everywhere,” he said.
“Businesses are being impacted, schools have been affected, and industries are suffering. We don’t want to be in this situation, but it is caused by factors beyond our control,” the minister added.
Adelabu also assured Nigerians that relief would come within two weeks, citing commitments from gas suppliers and ongoing repairs of gas pipelines.
“I can tell you, with the committee we have set up and commitments from gas suppliers, plus the timeline for the repair of the gas pipelines, we should start seeing improvements in supply in two weeks. Two weeks!” he emphasised.
However, as the timeline elapsed, manufacturers, retailers, and small businesses surveyed by BusinessDay reported that the reliance on self-generated power continues to erode profits and limit growth.
Gas-fired plants, which produce the bulk of Nigeria’s electricity, continue to operate below capacity due to supply constraints and pricing disputes.
At the same time, the transmission network remains too weak to handle higher loads, resulting in frequent grid collapses and forced reductions in output.
Distribution companies are also grappling with financial challenges and infrastructure deficits, further weakening the entire power value chain and creating a cycle where gains in one segment are offset by failures in others.
For consumers, the impact remains immediate and severe. In major cities, prolonged outages have become the norm, forcing households to spend more on alternative energy sources.
In rural communities, access to grid electricity remains limited, further widening economic disparities and restricting opportunities for development.
Businesses, particularly manufacturers, continue to face rising costs due to unreliable power supply, often relying heavily on generators to sustain production. This has led to higher production costs, increased prices, and reduced competitiveness both locally and internationally.
In response, the government has proposed several reforms aimed at addressing the challenges, including attracting private investment, improving pricing mechanisms, and strengthening regulatory oversight.
However, progress has remained uneven, with investor confidence still weak and the long-standing issues in Nigeria’s power sector far from resolved.