NIGERIA’s total petrol supply rose to 40.1 million litres per day (ml/d) in March 2026, reflecting a modest increase from the 39.5 ml/d recorded in February, as imports played a critical role in stabilising the market.
This was disclosed in the latest factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) sighted by News Point Nigeria, which provided an overview of developments in the country’s midstream and downstream petroleum sector.
According to the data, domestic supply accounted for 34.2 ml/d, while imports contributed 5.9 ml/d, signalling a recovery in imported petrol volumes despite a limited number of licences issued during the period.
The report indicated a slight improvement in overall supply within the review period, even as Nigeria continues to rely significantly on refined petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery, amid global oil market pressures that have pushed up the cost of refined products.
Production from the Dangote Refinery stood at 48.2 ml/d in March, with an average capacity utilisation of 93.62 per cent, underscoring strong operational performance.
However, the refinery’s contribution to domestic supply declined for the third consecutive month, dropping to 34.2 ml/d in March, compared to 36 ml/d in February and 40.1 ml/d in January 2026.
In contrast, petrol import volumes recorded a sharp increase, nearly doubling on a month-on-month basis from 3 ml/d in February to 5.9 ml/d in March.
The rise in imports came amid constrained licensing conditions, suggesting a cautious but deliberate return of importers into the market to bridge emerging supply gaps.
On the demand side, domestic consumption fell significantly to 47.3 ml/d in March, down from 56.9 ml/d recorded in February.
The drop in consumption, alongside the increase in supply, points to a relative easing of pressure in the market during the period under review. This occurred as average pump prices stood at ₦1,249.01 per litre in Lagos, ₦1,286.81 per litre in Abuja, and ₦1,280.43 per litre in Enugu.
Despite the improved supply outlook, a supply-demand gap persisted in March, as total PMS supply of 40.1 ml/d remained below consumption levels of 47.3 ml/d. This shortfall signals potential strain on inventories and downstream distribution channels.
Overall, the March data underscores the continued importance of imports as a stabilising buffer, particularly during periods of fluctuating domestic production and demand, even as the country deepens its reliance on local refining capacity.
On a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s average daily petrol supply declined sharply to 40.1 ml/d in March 2026 from 51.6 ml/d recorded in March 2025, representing a drop of 11.5 ml/d, or approximately 22.3 per cent.
However, on a month-on-month basis, supply recorded a modest recovery from the 39.5 ml/d posted in February 2026, largely driven by increased import volumes during the period.