CAMPAIGNING for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections kicks off on Wednesday, five months ahead of the polls, with the contest expected to be dominated by crushing inflation, the cost-of-living crisis, insecurity and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s far-reaching economic reforms.
News Point Nigeria reports that Africa’s most populous country is still grappling with years of economic turmoil and violence from armed groups, even as a divided opposition appears to work in favour of Tinubu, who is seeking a second term in office.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of Nigeria politics newsletter The Bellwether.
Elected in 2023, Tinubu has used his first term to push through ambitious economic reforms, including the removal of a costly fuel subsidy that for years had indirectly suppressed prices across the economy.
Although the reforms have been praised by economists and investors, they have also triggered a severe cost-of-living crisis, with the naira losing significant value and inflation rising as high as 34 per cent. Headline inflation, however, cooled to 15.4 per cent in July.
The slide into poverty, which pre-dated Tinubu’s administration, has continued to affect millions of Nigerians, with more than 60 per cent of the population now living below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, compared with 40 per cent in 2019.
The country is also confronted by multiple security crises, ranging from jihadist insurgencies and non-ideological “bandit” gangs to farmers-herders conflicts over land and a simmering separatist conflict.
Violence has increased since 2024, according to Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, who said the trend was “driven by the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria” as well as increased conflict in Borno State, the heartland of the jihadist insurgency.
Meanwhile, Adekaiyaoja said the opposition had been too consumed by internal and legal challenges to clearly articulate policy differences between its candidates and Tinubu.
“The opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference” between their policies and Tinubu’s, he said.
For some voters, however, economic hardship remains the dominant concern.
“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, who said he intended to vote for Tinubu.
Tinubu is regarded as one of Nigeria’s shrewdest politicians, while his All Progressives Congress controls the National Assembly and 31 of the country’s 36 powerful governorships.
The January 16 presidential poll will, in part, be a rematch of the 2023 contest, with Tinubu again facing former South-East governor Peter Obi, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and other contenders.
Tinubu won the 2023 election with 36.6 per cent of the vote, while Abubakar secured 29 per cent and Obi polled 25 per cent.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, who garnered about six per cent in the last election, has now teamed up with Obi to run as his vice-presidential candidate.
But beyond the political calculations, insecurity is also threatening voter participation in the forthcoming election.
“Nigeria is not safe — terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a 28-year-old street vendor in Abuja.
Alegbe is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State, but said she was unwilling to take the risk of travelling there for the election.
“For me to take the risk to travel… I will not take that,” she said, citing the fivefold increase in transportation costs as well as concerns over vote-buying that have tainted previous elections.
Voter turnout was only 27 per cent in the 2023 election.
The campaigns come shortly after President Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Obi; his African Action Congress (AAC) counterpart, Omoyele Sowore; and the presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, among others, signed the National Peace Accord on Tuesday.
The event, held at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja, attracted representatives of other presidential candidates, governorship and National Assembly contestants, the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Joash Amupitan, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, chairmen of political parties and other leading political figures from across the country.
Organised by the National Peace Committee (NPC), the signing ceremony represents the first phase of the exercise, while the second phase will take place after the 2027 elections.
Ahead of the commencement of the gathering, which provided a framework for peaceful political engagement leading to the January and February elections, Obi called for a credible electoral process.
The former Anambra State governor said he had no fear going into the 2027 election, but appealed for an election in which Nigerians’ votes would count.
“I don’t have any fear [going into next year’s election] except to say that, please, for the sake of the children of Nigeria, can we have an election where people’s votes will count?” Obi said.
To ensure a peaceful election, the NDC presidential candidate urged Nigerians not to vote for any candidate or political party that violates the provisions of the peace accord.
Asked what punishment should be imposed on those who violate the agreement, Obi said, “Well, the punishment is that Nigerians should not vote for them.”
He also urged all contestants to “be exemplary” in their conduct as the general elections draw closer.
“You can’t answer ‘His Excellency’ without being an excellent person,” Obi, 65, said. “So, the process that will make you answer ‘His Excellency’ should be excellent, and the only way to do it is to conduct yourself properly.”
President Bola Tinubu, who was represented at the peace accord signing by Akume, commended the leadership of the National Peace Committee, including former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, for sustaining the initiative since 2014.
Tinubu said technological improvements in Nigeria’s electoral process, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), had eliminated ballot stuffing and restored power to voters.
He cited the recent off-cycle elections in Anambra, Osun and Ekiti states as evidence of growing transparency in Nigeria’s electoral process.
“Different parties won them, and local and foreign observers described them as free, credible, and transparent. When the process and outcome are manifestly transparent, we see less post-election litigation in our courts,” he said.
Tinubu added that the reforms had also increased political accountability because “politicians are now more accountable to the people because votes count.”