THE seven-day ultimatum handed down to the coupists in the Niger Republic by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), ended yesterday.
ECOWAS had responded with fury, after military adventurists seized power in that country, issuing threats and giving the boys in khaki uniforms seven days to vacate power and restore the elected president to power failure of which they will deploy full force to kick them out.
With the ultimatum over, although guns and mortals are yet to start firing, both parties seem to be digging deep, preparing for such an eventuality. President Bola Tinubu, on Friday, wrote to the Nigerian Senate to inform the lawmakers of a possible military expedition in Niger Republic and to seek their consent. I am not sure if lawmakers from the North will approve of such an unproductive venture. Even before the lawmakers spoke, Northern power brokers have been calling on the President to have a re-think about such an action. I do believe that the President is using the carrot-and-stick approach to the crisis in that country. It should never get to the point of sending Nigeria’s military to Niger. It is time for both parties to sit at the drawing board and think through the consequences of war.
While Tinubu is pursuing all the options that are available to him, the General in charge in Niger is also talking tough. He has cut off diplomatic ties with France, the United States of America, Nigeria, and Togo while a series of anti-Tinubu demonstrations have been held in Niamey. His men have been patrolling the streets in a show of force and are being hailed by the masses as saviours. They have asked ECOWAS and other international communities not to poke their noses into their internal affairs. Ironically, they are asking the Wagner Group and Russia to come to their aid. Confused lot, if you ask me.
As ECOWAS Chairman, Tinubu, has had to send former Head of State, AbdulSalami Abubakar, and the Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Abubakar to Niger on a trouble-shooting mission. This was after the President of the Republic of Benin, Patrick Talon met General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of the elite Presidential Guard that kicked out his boss in a coup d’etat on July 26.
Abubakar’s peace mission collapsed even before it started. The military boys are not ready to just surrender and go back to their barracks. Nobody will organize a coup, risking their lives to hand over the ‘booty’ to another man. Apart from that, the junta has succeeded in dividing the regional body, ECOWAS, as Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali are now fully in support of the coup plotters. After all, leaders in those countries also rose to power through the barrels of the gun.
The possibility of the ousted President of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum returning to power is daily becoming slimmer. What Abdulsalami and the Sultan should be negotiating should be a quick return to democratic rule in Niger as well as a guarantee that the ousted leader and his family will be treated fairly and his dignity protected. Anything outside that would spell disaster for Nigeria and President Tinubu’s foreign policy engagement.
Niger, one of the largest countries in the world with a landmass of 1, 267,000 km2, is more than twice the size of France or slightly less than twice the size of the United States of America’s city of Texas. But the Sahara Desert covers about 65 per cent of the country.
Again, it is among the poorest countries in the world despite the huge Uranium presence in its soil. Uranium and plutonium are the two leading ingredients used in the making of atomic bombs. Hope you can now connect the dots. With a population of around 25 million people, 80 per cent of whom live below the poverty line, the country, like many other African nations, has had the misfortune of being led by inept leaders.
On July 26, military officers in the country arrested the country’s president and proclaimed that they are in charge of the country. They closed all the country’s borders and two days later, General Tchiani was announced as the new leader of the country. However, ECOWAS leaders led by Tinubu gave the junta seven days to restore Bazoum to power and immediately imposed sanctions on the country.
Some of the sanctions from ECOWAS are the closure of all Niger borders and the suspension of trade, diplomacy, and financial services to the country; a no-fly zone was also declared over Niger and its military hierarchy. ECOWAS has stressed that it would impose more sanctions if Niger’s military fails to restore deposed President Bazoum in seven days. Two ECOWAS countries, Mali and Burkina Faso are ruled by soldiers who had also ceased power via coups and have expressed their support for the military takeover of power in Niger. In a joint statement issued last week, they vowed to “lend a hand to the people of Niger” to fight invaders. Mali and Burkina Faso warned that “any military intervention against Niger would amount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali”. The Wagner Group has also congratulated the new leader in Niger, and has offered support. Even Russia has warned ECOWAS to thread softly in Niger and that its threats to use force would yield no fruit. You can read between the lines.
Although France, the United States of America, and the United Nations are egging Tinubu on in his desire to restore democracy to the country, it is not in our best interest to go to war with Niger now regardless of international pressure. Acting on the contrary may be both suicidal and costly.
In intervening in Niger, Tinubu should be mindful of the fact that he is dealing with a sovereign country, just like Nigeria. Niger gained independence from France on August 3, 1960, almost two months earlier than October 1, 1960, when Nigeria gained independence from Britain. Hence, any action that Nigeria and by extension, ECOWAS, or any body should take in Niger must respect the sovereignty of that country and should be geared toward resolving the conflict in the interest of all.
Considering the proximity of Niger to Nigeria, the escalation of the conflict in the former could be detrimental to Nigeria. Unlike what ECOWAS did in the Gambia through ECOMOG, the Niger-Nigeria border is about 1,608 kilometres. Seven states in Northern Nigeria – Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States – also share land borders with Niger Republic. Most of the communities bordering Nigeria and Niger are tormented by all kinds of deadly terrorist groups. An outbreak of hostilities between both countries will be catastrophic, especially for Nigeria. Presently, there are about 300,000 Nigerian refugees in Niger due to the activities of the Boko Haram sect and ISIS jihadist war in the area, although many Nigeriens are also in Nigeria at the moment. What becomes of them in case war breaks out in the region?
Apart from that, the Nigerian military is almost overwhelmed by internal security operations against Boko Haram insurgents in the Northeast and IPOB/ESN crisis in the Southeast. Being involved in another external war will amount to Nigeria committing hara-kiri. With a total debt hovering around N46.25 trillion according to the Debt Management Office (DMO), how and where will Nigeria get the money and the men to fund a war at this time? Already, foreign nations led by France and Germany have started evacuating their Nationals out of Niger. Is Nigeria going to lead another war against another sovereign nation this time around?
Besides, there is the possibility of a conflict between the two West African neighbours snowballing into a regional or global conflict. As I stated earlier, Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso are already lining up behind the coupists in Niger. The Wagner group is also waiting in the wings while Russia is most likely to pitch her tents behind the coup plotters. Are will ready to lead another proxy war between Russia and the USA?
Unlike Nigeria, which has fought only one civil war since independence (excluding peacekeeping operations), Niger is a veteran of many armed conflicts. Niger was among the African countries that participated in the Gulf War between 1990 and 1991 during Operation Desert Shield, which was an armed campaign waged by a 39-country coalition against Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait.
While defending democracy is good, the best guarantee against a coup in Africa is to entrench good governance in all African Countries. It is sad that despite her God-given wealth, most African countries are poor, with millions of her citizens living in extreme poverty. Nigeria, who is trying to play big brother to Niger, is not left out of this mess. Despite our years of unhindered democratic rule since 1999, how many of our people have been lifted out of the poverty quagmire? In actual fact, more Nigerians have been dragged into the poverty conundrum since the return of democratic governance in the country. African leaders should ensure that they are in power for the benefit of their people and not for their pockets alone.
It is an irony that Tinubu, who still has cases in court challenging his election, is now leading the battle for the restoration of democracy in another country. With one leg in office and the other leg limping, Tinubu cannot claim to have the full mandate of Nigerians until the court cases against him are disposed of up to the Supreme Court. While he is playing big brother politics at the international level, he should think more of alleviating the sufferings of millions of Nigerians due to the twin policies of fuel subsidy removal and the unification of the dual exchange rates in the country. He will definitely need to keep an eye on the situation in Niger, but that should not be at the miscalculation of taking military action against another sovereign country. What is going on in Niger is more or less the second scramble for Africa between Russia and the USA, Tinubu should not drag the country into the fray. It is not our battle to fight.
See you next week.
Akintunde is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Glittersonline newspaper. His syndicated column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Mondays.