AT this time when politicians smile out of meeting rooms where they often bury truth in a grave, it is also the right time for social commentators and oracles to tell them some inconvenient truths that will assist them in their reflection, deflection and even defection.
So, permit me today to begin a serial to our leaders at all levels on the danger of some assumptions that may set off their abysmal failure in office. First, let me confess that this title isn’t original to me. Read below a story of how I got fascinated by the title through a public affairs writer/speaker from Katsina State, Mallam Sani Ibrahim Dabai who once spoke to it at a colloquium. Below is the original copy that got me cracking:
“A few months ago, I was invited to a programme somewhere as a guest speaker.
When I entered the auditorium, I saw some guests I knew sitting in one corner. I went up to them and started to greet them one after the other. I shook their hands, even with the ones I didn’t know until I got to one guest. I didn’t know him and when I extended my hand, he ignored it. After few seconds, I withdrew my hand. All my thought was, “what arrant nonsense?”
I kept asking the question from myself. I felt very embarrassed and angry. Embarrassed for myself and angry at the man. What was he feeling like, I thought. All those other guests accepted my greeting. And to my knowledge, I hadn’t done anything wrong. I gave him a very scornful look, greeted the remaining guests and went to take a seat. Even after I sat down, I was still pissed. I kept stealing glances at the guest to see how he would react to other people.
Then I saw it… Amazingly he was blind!!!
His eyes were open, but he couldn’t see at all! The other guests who came to greet him had to touch him first, then take his hand if they wanted to shake hands with him.
To my great surprise, he is my hidden protege who really appreciates my lectures. I never knew he came purposely because his wife informed him that I would be the guest speaker for this year’s programme. In fact, he was waiting to hear someone bemoan my name so as to stand and hug me.
When I heard this, my embarrassment level tripled. In addition to that, I felt stupid, very stupid. I was still angry, just angry at myself. In fact, I could not say a word to him until I got to the podium and my speech for that programme changed from “Recovery” to “DANGER OF ASSUMPTION”.
‘How they shape our perceptions and limit our potential’
We’ve all done it. A quick glance at someone’s outfit, a passing remark, or an incomplete piece of information leads us to conclusions that feel true but are often far from it. Assumptions are a part of human nature, a mental shortcut designed to save time and energy.
But what happens when these assumptions lead us astray? Making assumptions about people, situations, and outcomes not only limits our understanding but can also rob us of opportunities for growth, connection, and success. Let’s dive into why assumptions are so tempting, the risks they carry, and how we can reframe our thinking for better outcomes.
Assumptions are rooted in our brain’s need for efficiency. Instead of processing every detail, we rely on past experiences, societal norms, and biases to fill in the gaps. While this can be helpful in certain scenarios (e.g., assuming a car will stop at a red light), it often backfires when applied to complex human interactions or unpredictable situations.
I have to borrow from the brilliance of Mallam Sani Dabai who realised that he had to change his topic from ‘Recovery’ to ‘Danger of Assumptions’ to talk to our very presumptuous political leaders at all levels today so that Nigeria, our Nigeria would not come to harm through their #2027 ‘politricks’ that isn’t suggesting redemption songs at the moment.
At this time of staccato voices that are clearly devoid of wisdom, reason and responsibility, this is a time to speak nothing but truth to the power of our duty bearers, our leaders who are believed to have had some assumptions that they don’t need the people’s votes or even support to be elected and re-elected at this time.
When elections begin as a process in most parts of democratic worlds, leaders are always afraid of the people who are expected to vote for them to be or remain in power. But in Nigeria, the people have been wired to be afraid of their leaders who have curiously assumed that indeed as it is written, ‘wine is for merry making but money answereth all (their political) things’. They assume very dangerously that what money cannot do during elections, more money will do.
From their body language and gleaning from their third anniversary speeches, we can deduce that there is no reference to their responsibility to a constitutional provision that, “security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government”. Yesterday, our leader told us, among others on “SECURITY AND NATIONAL UNITY”:
“…Security remains central to our national mission and to the creation of a virile and prosperous society. Our Armed Forces and security agencies have intensified operations against terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, oil thieves, and criminal networks. While challenges remain, many communities and highways are becoming safer and more economically active.
We continue investing in intelligence, surveillance, logistics, technology, and inter-agency coordination. We are improving the capabilities of our armed forces and security agencies, and reclaiming the authority of the Nigerian state wherever criminality threatens peace and order. While we continue to confront the challenges head-on, progress is being made. I want to assure you that this government will not relent until every Nigerian can live, work, travel, and dream in safety…”
Even in a well-written anniversary article as part of wrap-around advertorial in major newspapers in Nigeria, the Information and National Orientation Minister, Alhaji Mohammed Idris posited:
“…On this third anniversary we are very proud to affirm that President Tinubu has kept faith with the Nigerian people on all counts.
We have an economy that has grown to ₦441.5 trillion in 2025, up from ₦309.5 trillion in 2023. Inflation has more than halved – from the 34.80% recorded in December 2024 to 15.69% in April 2026. Nigeria’s non-oil exports surged to $6.1 billion in 2025, an 11.5% increase over 2024; while Federation tax revenue collection rose from ₦19.9 trillion in 2023 to ₦28.3 trillion in 2025.
Monthly disbursements by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) have doubled to over ₦2 trillion, from less than ₦1 trillion in 2023, while foreign capital inflows have grown nearly 90% – from $12.32 billion in 2024 to $23.22 billion in 2025. External reserves have this year hit a thirteen-year high of $50 billion…”
The President and his Information Minister have spoken and written well for the optics at this time. But there is a danger in their assumptions that the people who are expected to cast their ballot in most parts of the vast country of more than 90 million registered voters will be swayed by the flowery and elegant words used in the 3rd anniversary self glorification.
Let’s face the brass tacks: I believe it is dangerous to assume that the core northern states of Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Borno and Yobe where terrorists have kept them away from their farms and homes are persuaded by the grandiloquence of our leaders.
Isn’t it dangerous too to assume that most parents in some Katsina communities where they have to release their daughters to terrorists for regular abuse and rape are persuaded that this administration “will “continue to confront the challenges head-on”? Will they believe the anniversary assurance “that this government will not relent until every Nigerian can live, work, travel, and dream in safety…”?
The Information Minister’s statistics can’t be easily faulted but we can rely on a classic from a guru who claims that it is dangerous to assume sometimes that statistics can be used to confound the populace at all times. This is what a scholar, Aaron Levenstein, a professor of business management, teaches those who use statistics anyhow: “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital”
Malam Idris, is doubtless, a good man but his anniversary statistics may have concealed the existential threats that most people face with insufferable food inflation, unaffordable energy prices, high cost of imports because of forex rate, low income, youth unemployment and multi-dimensional poverty of the people in the last three years.
Specifically, the president has directed people generally to ask their governors in 36 states and Abuja what they have done with increased allocations as a result of savings from subsidy-is-gone ‘presidential order’ three years ago. There is therefore some danger in assumptions in Abuja that the governors have used the funds allocated to them to take care of the people in the state.
Meanwhile, our leader’s third anniversary speech didn’t deepen the people’s assurance about security of the people, including in Oyo state where 46 children and teachers are still being tortured in the wilderness of the wicked. At press time, there was a report that two negotiators dispatched to strike a deal with the terrorists were killed too this week. This is how the wickedness from the wicked in Oyo was contextually reported by Albab Abdullahi:
‘In every civilized country and in every true religious teaching, negotiators are sacred. They are messengers of peace. They carry hope where there is fear. They speak for life when death is close. Even when talks are hard and danger is real, their role is respected. Their lives are not to be touched. History remembers them as heroes who save souls without firing a gun.
But in Oyo, that sacred rule was shattered in cold blood.
Two negotiators went into the bandits’ hideout to secure the release of abducted children. Their only weapons were words and goodwill. They went to find a way for peace, to bring terrified kids back to their parents. What did they meet? Death. The bandits did not see human beings. They did not see peace ambassadors. They saw targets. Another massacre happened. Blood was spilled on the very ground where negotiation was supposed to bring life. This is not just murder. This is a deep insult to humanity itself…
When those who risk their lives to save others are slaughtered, it sends a clear and bloody message: these criminals want more than money. They want fear. They want control. They want to prove that no one is safe, not even those trying to end the nightmare.
This evil is not only in Oyo. It is happening across Nigeria. Kidnapping for ransom has become a deadly business. Families cry, communities live in terror, and negotiators are increasingly becoming victims themselves. Each time this happens, it proves the same painful truth: the system is failing…”
We can see from the sad news on the Oyo 46 and others in Borno, already a killing field, that there is a danger in assumptions of our leaders that all these economic and security issues threatening existence of Nigerians aren’t serious enough to stop their election and re-election, after all.
This is just a wake-up call on how not to plan to win election and lose the country in 2027. We will continue next week on other vital areas where there are dangers in assumptions that mismanagement of national priorities doesn’t matter in an election year, after all. God bless Nigeria!
- Oloja is former editor of The Guardian newspaper and his column, Inside Stuff, runs on the back page of the newspaper on Sunday. The column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Monday.