GLOBAL crude oil prices may cross $80 per barrel this week, following the major escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran, with the oil market reacting sharply to reports of coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities.
This came as marketers of petroleum products said petrol prices rise to N1,000 per litre due to rising crude oil prices and the volatility in the foreign exchange market.
This development follows a “preemptive defensive strike,” overnight attacks launched by the United States on three of Iran’s major nuclear sites.
The strike, as announced by President Donald Trump, “obliterated” Tehran’s critical nuclear infrastructure, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer.
In a swift retaliation, the Iranian parliament has reportedly moved to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. The move sent immediate shockwaves through the global energy market, with Brent crude trading higher in the early hours and analysts projecting further gains.
Concerned by this trend, energy analysts on Sunday warned that the surge in global crude oil prices could push the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) in Nigeria to as high as N1,000 per litre in the coming weeks, should Brent crude hit the $80 per barrel threshold.
The Chief Executive Officer of PetroleumPrice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said private depots are already gearing up to effect a hike in loading cost on Monday.
He stated, “Private depots are likely to increase petrol price to N1,000 in the coming days with the current trend observed in the market. If by tomorrow morning, crude price increases to $80 or exceeds that threshold, Nigerians would pay N1,000 at depots.
“The situation means they will take advantage of Nigerians, but we can only hope that Dangote maintains its current price, that is the only way depot owners won’t jack up the price anyhow. The price surge seen last week was basically because Dangote stopped selling for some days. But it has opened up its portal and is now selling at N880 for two million litres. Dangote remains a major determinant of petrol price.”
According to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the heightened crisis between Israel and Iran has continued to push up crude prices, prompting a rise in global petrol prices.
On Friday, the Dangote refinery jerked up petrol prices from N825 to N880. In response, MRS Oil Nigeria and other filling stations selling Dangote petrol raised their pump prices to an average of N955 in the South East and North West.
One of our correspondents observed on Sunday that other filling stations have also hiked their prices to between N930 and N960, depending on the location. Lagos has the cheapest rate as MRS and other Dangote partners sold petrol at N925 per litre on Sunday.
Speaking with this newspaper, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, linked the recent price hike to instability in the global crude market due to the Israel-Iran crisis and an unstable foreign exchange situation.
“There is a crisis between Israel and Iran, and Brent crude has gone up from around $66 to about $77 per barrel,” Ukadike said. He explained that the price of crude in the international market directly impacts the cost of domestic petrol, adding that the volatility in the exchange rate also compounds the challenge.
According to him, the Dangote refinery and importers reacted to the changes to raise petrol prices on Friday. “Once the exchange rate goes up, it will affect the price of petroleum products. Once crude oil is also going up, it will also affect it,” he said.
Ukadike warned that the cost of lifting 50,000 litres of petrol is now significantly higher, putting financial pressure on independent marketers and forcing them to review their pricing strategy.
He added, “Definitely, marketers will also increase to meet that gap. Since the refiner, which is Dangote, has already increased that price. Some of them that are importers have also increased prices in line with the international market. So, for us, consequently, it will increase the volume of money we use to buy 50,000 litres worth of petrol. It will put pressure on our finances and also make us redirect and review our market strategy.”
He added that petrol could sell for as high as N1,000 per litre, especially in some parts of the North, due to transportation and logistics costs. “In the North, we’ve seen N980, N990, N975. Some places, maybe to the far end, around N1,000,” he said.
According to him, the combination of international market forces and domestic cost burdens is making it difficult for marketers to maintain stable pricing. He said that petrol refined locally by Dangote could be sold at almost the same price as imported products, largely due to global crude price volatility.
Ukadike explained that the Dangote refinery is also sourcing crude oil at international market rates, which he said diminishes the expected price advantage over imports.
“Dangote is buying crude oil, and the price of crude oil has gone up. So definitely, it depends on what the presidential committee on the naira-for-crude deal approves,” he added. Ukadike noted that marketers would likely retail petrol between N930 and N990 per litre, depending on the region.
He explained that some areas, particularly the South-South, are seeing prices of up to N950 per litre due to depot proximity and marine delivery from coastal terminals. “Some of them in the South-South are using the coastal area to take their products. So those ones are selling from their depots because they collected products from vessels,” he said.
Ukadike reiterated that the cost of petrol remains heavily influenced by the interplay of crude prices, foreign exchange rates, and logistics.
This newspaper reports that importers had earlier increased their prices following the rise in crude prices.
Our correspondent reports that Nigeria’s major crude grades—Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe—rose to $79 per barrel last week and sustained the rise till yesterday, following Israel’s military strikes on Iran, heightening fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
According to data from Oilprice.com as of Sunday, Bonny Light stood at $78.62 per barrel, while Brass River and Qua Iboe closed at approximately $79. From around N65 in the past weeks, Brent stood at $77, and WTI rose to $73.84 per barrel.
The new price levels exceed the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel by about $3, potentially offering short-term fiscal relief. The new price levels exceed the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel by about $3, potentially offering short-term fiscal relief.
Analysts had earlier warned that higher crude prices could trigger an increase in local fuel prices, as refiners face rising costs for crude, the primary feedstock for petrol and diesel production. Since Monday, depots have hiked the pump prices of petrol after the escalating tension in the Middle East jerked up the prices of crude oil.
Petrol price rose from N825 to N840 on Monday. Rainoil’s price surged by N50, from N850 to N900 per litre. It was also reported that Fynefield and Mainland jerked their ex-depot prices to N930 and N920, adding N51 and N63 respectively.