BRAZIL’s quest to win a record sixth World Cup heads into the knockout stages on Monday as Carlo Ancelotti’s team face Japan in the last 32, before four-time champions Germany play Paraguay and Morocco take on the Netherlands in perhaps the tie of the round.
The Brazilians are desperate to win the World Cup again, 24 years after they last lifted the trophy, and they eased through the group stage in first place above Morocco, with Vinicius Junior playing a starring role by scoring four goals.
The South Americans may be the favourites to progress to the last 16, but Japan are dangerous opponents and unlikely to make life easy in the first game of the day in Houston.
Brazil’s World Cup campaign kicked off with an underwhelming draw against Morocco.
Vinicius Jr had to spare them the embarrassment of defeat in a World Cup opener for the first since 1934 as his spectacular solo goal helped them snatch the point.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side, however, responded to criticisms with a comfortable 3-0 win against Haiti as Manchester United forward Matheus Cunha scored twice.
They also repeated the scoreline against Scotland four days later, a result which ultimately led to a group-stage exit for Steve Clarke’s side.
Coach Carlo Ancelotti names the same Brazil XI that started their 3-0 win over Scotland last time out.
That means Bournemouth winger Rayan keeps his place on the right of the front three, alongside Matheus Cunha and Vinicius Jr.
Japan Coach, Hajime Moriyasu makes four changes to the Japan line-up that started against Sweden.
Shogo Taniguchi, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kaishu Sano, and Junya Ito come in with Ao Tanaka, Ko Itakura, Ayumu Seko and Yukinari Sugawara dropping to the bench.
People have been saying if there is a little bit of a weakness in the Brazil side, Japan will test that. They are very quick, they can make the ball fly around.
Of all the match-ups, this is the most fascinating. Not least because if Japan were to eliminate Brazil in the knockout stage of the World Cup – it would be in terms of tradition, one of the great shocks. But we can see how it could be possible.
Japan were solid if not spectacular in their group, beating Tunisia 4-0 before draws against Netherlands and Sweden earned them qualification. H. Moriyasu’s side are disciplined and well-organised, and they carry a genuine threat going forward through Daichi Kamada, Ayase Ueda, and the lively Junya Ito.
Before last year’s Kirin Cup result, Japan had not beaten Brazil since 2005, when the sides drew 2-2 in the Confederations Cup.
The winners will advance to a last-16 tie on Sunday against Ivory Coast or Norway in New Jersey.
ANALYSIS:
The contest between Vinicius Junior and Japan’s right side will likely shape this match. Vinicius has scored four goals at this World Cup and poses the kind of direct, unpredictable threat that defences struggle to contain.
Hiroki Ito has been Japan’s best defensive performer and the Bayern Munich defender may be asked to offer additional cover wide. If Japan can limit Vinicius to half-spaces rather than open runs, they have a chance to stay compact. If Brazil find early rhythm and Vinicius is allowed to run at the Japanese backline, a big evening for the Real Madrid forward becomes the most likely outcome.
The most promising thing about Japan’s approach, ahead of their meeting with Brazil, is that the Selecao’s clear position of weakness is at full-back. Right-back Danilo will be 35 by the end of the tournament and is hardly the type of speedy, mobile full-back we’re accustomed to seeing for Brazil. Left-back Douglas Santos has never been a top-class performer.
In the centre of defence, they’re solid. You don’t want to be testing the aerial ability of Marquinhos and Gabriel. Taking them out of the equation and switching the play past them is the right approach.
Further, it’s difficult to see how Brazil will cope with those runners on the far side in a tactical sense. Other opponents generally feel compelled to drop an extra player into the back line, forming a back five against Japan’s front five as the Netherlands did, with Frenkie de Jong dropping in from midfield. That freed up the full-backs to stay wide and cope with Japan’s switches.
Which Brazil player will do this? Will Casemiro do what De Jong did? Will the inexperienced Rayan continue on the right and be tasked with dropping in? Does Carlo Ancelotti even consider this a problem he needs to find a solution for?
This feels like an enormous match, not merely in the context of this tournament but in the context of the World Cup overall. While football likes to think of itself as a global game, it remains dominated by sides from Western Europe and South America.
Japan have always felt like the coming force from elsewhere: they have the infrastructure, the tactical and technical qualities and other coaches marvel at their cohesion. But they’ve never won a knockout game at the World Cup.
If they eliminate Brazil — the dominant side in World Cup history, it would be enormous. Tactically, Japan’s approach might be perfect for the task.
PREDICTIONS:
Sadiq’s Prediction: Brazil’s individual quality should prove decisive in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Carlo Ancelotti’s side possesses the experience of navigating high-pressure knockout matches, and the attacking threat of Vinicius Junior, who has already scored four goals at the tournament, could be the difference. His pace and ability to isolate defenders in one-on-one situations remain Brazil’s biggest weapon.
Japan are expected to exploit Brazil’s aging full-backs through quick switches of play and overlapping runs, but the defensive partnership of Marquinhos and Gabriel should be strong enough to deal with crosses and aerial threats.
While Hiroki Ito may succeed in limiting Vinicius for periods, Brazil’s superior firepower and tournament pedigree give them the edge.
My Prediction: Brazil 3-1 Japan
Peter’s Prediction: Japan have built their reputation on tactical organisation, relentless pressing and collective discipline, and those qualities could frustrate Brazil over 120 minutes. Expect Hiroki Ito to receive extra defensive support against Vinicius Junior, forcing Brazil to attack through other channels while Japan repeatedly targets the spaces behind Brazil’s full-backs.
If Japan succeed in slowing the tempo and denying Brazil opportunities in transition, they have every chance of taking the match to penalties. Their compact defensive structure, intelligent movement and growing confidence could allow them to achieve what no Japanese side has previously managed—winning a World Cup knockout match against one of football’s traditional giants.
My Prediction: Brazil 1-1 Japan (Japan win 5-4 on penalties)
Gbenga’s Prediction: A Japanese victory would rank among the greatest upsets in World Cup history, but the tactical ingredients are present. Japan’s biggest strength lies in exploiting wide areas, precisely where Brazil appear most vulnerable. By stretching the game with rapid switches of play and forcing Brazil’s experienced full-backs into repeated defensive duels, Japan can create overloads without directly challenging Marquinhos and Gabriel in central areas.
Brazil will still create chances through Vinicius Junior, but if Hiroki Ito and the Japanese defensive unit successfully contain him while midfield runners consistently exploit the flanks, Japan have the organisation and technical quality to edge the contest.
Their disciplined system, combined with Brazil’s vulnerabilities at full-back, gives them a realistic path to a historic victory.
My Prediction: Brazil 1-3 Japan
Gloria’s Prediction: Brazil could produce one of their best attacking displays if they establish an early rhythm. Ancelotti’s team is likely to dominate possession, with Casemiro controlling midfield and allowing creative players to release Vinicius Junior into dangerous areas. If Japan fail to prevent Vinicius from driving into open spaces, the Real Madrid star could enjoy another standout performance.
Japan’s tactical discipline and fluid movement will create problems, particularly by targeting Danilo and Douglas Santos, but Brazil’s defensive experience and clinical finishing should ultimately outweigh Japan’s cohesion. Brazil’s remarkable World Cup knockout record and wealth of elite talent make them favourites to progress.
My Prediction: Brazil 3-2 Japan