FOR months now, Nigeria’s opposition politics has been gripped by quiet negotiations, whispered assurances and deep suspicion. At the centre of this delicate chessboard is Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Kano State governor, national leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and one of the most influential political mobilisers in Northern Nigeria.
As News Point Nigeria gathered from multiple highly placed sources, Kwankwaso’s anticipated defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been deliberately stalled, not because of uncertainty about the party itself, but due to a far more consequential question: who gets the 2027 presidential ticket?
According to insiders within the Kwankwasiyya Movement and the ADC, Kwankwaso’s decision to formally align with the ADC hinges almost entirely on assurances that former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, would emerge as the party’s presidential flagbearer.
There is already a proposed Obi–Kwankwaso alliance being quietly discussed for the 2027 election, an arrangement political actors say was first conceptualised by former President Olusegun Obasanjo as part of a broader effort to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Sources revealed that a three-man ADC committee mandated to engage heavyweight political figures recently met with a corresponding committee set up by Kwankwaso in Abuja. While expectations were high that the talks would conclude Kwankwaso’s defection, unresolved issues stalled the process.
“We are closing in on Kwankwaso,” a senior ADC official told News Point Nigeria. “But some concerns remain. We will likely reach a strong conclusion within one or two weeks.”
Behind the diplomatic language, however, lies deep mistrust.
Multiple sources in Kwankwaso’s camp confirmed that northern political elders and Obasanjo himself have urged caution. Their message, insiders say, is blunt: do not defect without guarantees.
Kwankwaso loyalists fear a scenario where Peter Obi is encouraged into the ADC, only to be overwhelmed at the presidential primaries by forces loyal to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, after which Obi could be persuaded to accept a vice-presidential slot.
“As it stands, Kwankwaso is Obi’s strongest bargaining chip,” a close aide said. “Once RMK defects without firm assurances, that leverage disappears.”
The fear, according to insiders, is that Kwankwaso himself could be politically neutralised while Obi is tactically boxed into a secondary role, a repeat of opposition miscalculations in previous cycles.
While national negotiations drag on, events in Kano State have fundamentally altered Kwankwaso’s political footing.
The defection of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, Kwankwaso’s protégé, political godson and successor to the APC sent shockwaves through the state and the wider opposition. Alongside Yusuf crossed nine federal lawmakers, 31 state assembly members and key local government chairmen.
Kwankwaso did not hide his pain.
“This is betrayal,” he declared, later designating January 23 as “World Betrayal Day.”
For a man who rebuilt Kano’s political structure through the Kwankwasiyya Movement and regained control of the state in 2023, Yusuf’s exit marked the most serious challenge to his authority in decades.
Yet, Kano’s political history suggests that today’s rupture follows a familiar pattern.
From the Aminu Kano–Abubakar Rimi fallout of the Second Republic to the Ganduje–Kwankwaso schism of the Fourth Republic, betrayal, defection and reinvention are recurring themes. Kano politics has never been linear; it is cyclical, ruthless and unforgiving.
Ironically, critics have reminded Kwankwaso that he once defected from the PDP to the APC while still governor, a precedent now being used to justify Yusuf’s move.
Former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau captured this sentiment succinctly: “The way Kwankwaso took PDP’s mandate to APC is the same way Abba is taking NNPP’s mandate to APC.”
Governor Yusuf defected from a position of strength. APC leaders in Kano immediately rallied behind him, granting him an automatic ticket for 2027. Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and other aspirants publicly relinquished their ambitions, strengthening Yusuf’s grip on the party structure.
With APC figures like Ganduje, Barau, Kawu Sumaila and a formidable federal backing, Yusuf enters 2027 as a dominant force, a reality Kwankwaso must now contend with.
Despite the setbacks, Kwankwaso is far from finished.
His deputy governor remains loyal. Several commissioners and party officials resigned in protest against Yusuf’s defection. The Kwankwasiyya Movement, though bruised, is not extinct.
More importantly, Kwankwaso is recalibrating nationally. His hesitation over ADC is not indecision but calculation. As one former north-east governor puts it: “A day is too long in politics.”
Amid speculation that Kwankwaso demanded the 2031 presidency from APC leaders, the NNPP has categorically denied any negotiation with President Bola Tinubu.
“Kwankwaso never held discussions with APC or Tinubu about defecting,” NNPP spokesperson Ladipo Johnson said. “These stories are deliberate attempts to weaken the opposition.”
Kwankwaso now stands at a crossroads: Join ADC, but only with ironclad guarantees for Obi, rebuild NNPP, weakened but ideologically distinct or remain a political kingmaker whose final move could redefine 2027
What is clear is that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is no political novice. Kano may be shaken, but Nigerian politics has not heard the last of him. As history has shown, writing Kwankwaso off has always been a costly mistake.