And then there were eight…
THE World Cup last eight kicks off tonight as France and Morocco do battle for a place in the semi-finals. It promises to be an absolute cracker of a match in Boston, US.
Two changes for Morocco as Anass Salah-Eddine and Chemsdine Talbi play, while Ismael Saibari is injured and Redouane Halhal is among the substitutes.
Morocco XI: Bounou, Salah-Eddine, Mazraoui, Diop, Hakimi, El Aynaoui, Bouaddi, El Khannouss, Ounahi, Talbi, Diaz.
Subs: Mohamedi, Reda Tagnaouli, Saadane, El Ouahdi, Riad, Belammari, Halhal, Amrabat, El Mourabet, Yassine, Rahimi, Sbai, El Kaabi, Amaimouni.
Didier Deschamps has made one change to the France starting 11 that faced Paraguay, with Desire Doue coming in for Bradley Barcola.
France XI: Maignan, Digne, Saliba, Upamecano, Kounde, Rabiot, Kone, Doue, Olise, Dembele, Mbappe.
Subs: Samba, Risser, Gusto, Konate, T Hernandez, L Hernandez, Lacroix, Tchouameni, Kante, Zaire-Emery, Cherki, Akliouche, Thuram, Barcola, Mateta.
For those of you who remember, this is a repeat of the 2022 World Cup semi-final and it was France who came out on top in a 2-0 win.
It was a huge shock to see Morocco go that deep into the tournament but this time around, it’s almost an expectation.
We have backed France to win this World Cup from the start, and We are not going to change my mind now.
Morocco are capable of beating them but, to do it, they will have to do something they have not done so far at this tournament, which is play well for 90 minutes.
They were really poor in the first half against Canada in the last 16 and looked really lethargic. They are a team who have spells in games where they look a real force, but if they start like that again this time, then they will be in big trouble.
They are a powerful side and skilful too, but key forward Ismael Saibari’s injury is a blow too and I am not really sure if they can hurt France without him up front.
We saw some real character from France to stay calm in the face of the provocation they got from Paraguay last time out, and we already knew about their quality.
Desire Doue came off the bench to make a difference in that game, which shows the strength they have and, because of that – and with Saibari out – I am going for France to take this.
Kylian Mbappe has seven goals and leads the Golden Boot race alongside Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland. Azzedine Ounahi scored twice against Canada and is the most in-form player in Morocco’s setup. Aurelien Tchouameni missed Saturday’s Paraguay game with a thigh injury and will be a late call for Thursday, which matters enormously because the midfield question is the central tactical battle of this match.
France with Tchouameni is a different defensive operation from France with Manu Kone. Morocco knows exactly which version it is playing against, and manager Didier Deschamps’ answer to that question will shape how he lines up at Gillette Stadium.
ANALYSIS:
France Manager Deschamps has built France to press high in the first and second third, recover the ball through Tchouameni or Kone and Rabiot’s interceptions, and then release the front three in transition before the opposing defense can set. Against Morocco, that high press needs to be precise, because coach Ouahbi’s double pivot of El Aynaoui and Bouaddi are very good at playing through pressure and finding Ounahi or Hakimi in wide channels.
If Morocco can play out from the press and reach Hakimi in one-on-one situations against Digne’s side, they create exactly the threat that caused their opponents the most problems in 2022.
Coach Ouahbi’s Morocco defends in a compact 4-2-3-1 that sits behind the ball and relies on winning the second ball and launching quickly through Ounahi and Diaz into the gaps behind the opposition’s full-backs.
Against a France side that pushes Kounde and Digne high, those gaps are real. The tactical key for Morocco is not matching France in possession, which they will not do, but making France pay in transition the way they made the Netherlands and Canada pay, and trusting their own defensive structure to limit Mbappe’s opportunities in the box.
France’s individual quality and the Mbappe factor make them the favorites, but Morocco in this kind of match, with a functioning defensive shape and a creative midfield running off Ounahi’s form, is not a team to dismiss. This is the best Morocco side in history. They are not here to lose again.
Riad and Diop have been the most consistent defensive partnership in this tournament across any team still standing. Mbappe’s diagonal runs behind the full-back line are France’s primary offensive mechanism, and how Morocco’s center-backs manage the space in behind without stepping out and leaving gaps is the central defensive challenge of the match.
Ounahi’s movement between the lines and his ability to receive and turn under pressure is Morocco’s most dangerous individual attacking quality. Tchouameni and Kone at their best eliminate exactly this kind of shadow striker from the game by stepping to intercept before the ball reaches him. If Tchouameni or Kone are not at their best, Ounahi will find the space he exploited against Canada and the Netherlands and that changes Morocco’s threat level considerably.
France’s depth in the attacking third and Mbappe’s individual ceiling give manager Deschamps the edge, and with Tchouameni expected back the defensive structure should hold firm for long enough to pull clear.
Morocco have not lost in 34 matches, are coming off their best performance of the tournament, and know exactly how to hurt France in wide transition areas from four years of analysis. Ounahi is in the form of his life, but France have too much quality across the pitch to be dragged into the kind of grinding extra-time battle that suits coach Ouahbi’s side. France should find the goals to win it in regulation.
PREDICTIONS:
Sadiq’s Prediction: France enter the quarter-final as favourites because of the balance Deschamps has created between an aggressive pressing system and devastating counter-attacking football. With Aurélien Tchouaméni expected to return alongside Manu Koné and Adrien Rabiot, Les Bleus possess the midfield discipline needed to limit Azzedine Ounahi’s movement between the lines.
Morocco’s compact 4-2-3-1 shape has frustrated opponents throughout the tournament, but France’s biggest weapon remains Kylian Mbappé’s diagonal runs behind the defence. The pace and creativity of the French front line could eventually stretch the otherwise outstanding defensive pairing of Riad and Diop.
Although Morocco arrive unbeaten in 34 matches and full of confidence after impressive performances against Canada and the Netherlands, France’s superior depth and experience in major tournaments should prove decisive over 90 minutes.
My Prediction: France 4-2 Morocco
Peter’s Prediction: Morocco’s best route to the semi-finals lies in turning the match into the kind of tense, attritional battle that suits their tactical identity. Their disciplined 4-2-3-1 system, coupled with the composure of El Aynaoui and Bouaddi in midfield, gives them the tools to survive France’s pressing waves.
Riad and Diop have arguably been the tournament’s most reliable centre-back partnership, and if they can contain Mbappé’s diagonal runs while Hakimi exploits the spaces behind Digne, Morocco have every chance of forcing extra time.
History favours France in terms of squad depth and star quality, but Morocco’s unbeaten streak, defensive organisation and confidence could push the contest beyond 120 minutes. In a penalty shootout, momentum and belief may tilt the balance in favour of the Atlas Lions, producing one of the biggest surprises of the tournament.
My Prediction: France 2-2 Morocco (Morocco win on penalties)
Gbenga’s Prediction: Expect Morocco to threaten France in transition, particularly through Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Díaz, exploiting the spaces left by Jules Koundé and Lucas Digne when they push forward. Coach Tarik Sektioui Ouahbi’s side has mastered the art of absorbing pressure and attacking quickly through wide areas.
However, France’s high press is specifically designed to recover possession in dangerous zones. Tchouaméni, Koné and Rabiot excel at intercepting passes before releasing Mbappé and the front three into open space.
Morocco may find a goal through Ounahi’s creativity or Hakimi’s overlaps, but France’s attacking firepower and tournament pedigree should eventually overwhelm the Atlas Lions.
My Prediction: France 3-2 Morocco
Gloria’s Prediction: This could be the tightest of France’s possible victories. Morocco have built arguably the strongest team in their history, anchored by an organised defensive structure and midfielders capable of playing through pressure.
The key battle will unfold in midfield. If Ounahi succeeds in escaping the attention of Tchouaméni and Koné, Morocco can create dangerous situations behind France’s full-backs. But if France win the midfield duel, Mbappé’s speed and movement could punish Morocco’s back line.
France’s ability to dominate possession without losing their defensive shape gives Deschamps’ men a slight edge, even against a Moroccan side that has avoided defeat in 34 consecutive matches.
My Prediction: France 1-0 Morocco