ENGLAND’s place in the round of 32 was confirmed last night without even kicking a ball after Uruguay were beaten by Spain.
The Three Lions sit on four points after two games – meaning they are at least guaranteed one of the eight third-placed qualification spots if it all goes wrong tonight.
Panama aren’t enjoying the greatest of times at this World Cup. If they don’t score tonight, they’ll become the first side to not score at the tournament in 20 years.
Also, only six sides have gone through their World Cup campaign without scoring.
Ghana go into their final group game against Croatia on Saturday knowing that results elsewhere have already secured them their place in the World Cup knockout stages for the first time since 2010.
Zlatko Dalic’s side know a draw would be enough to secure them progress, but only a win will take them above the Africans as Group L runners-up, and even possibly winners.
Ghana’s four points in the bag mean that even if they lose to Croatia, they will still finish higher than at least four teams in the third-place rankings.
But the Black Stars are aiming higher. Finishing second could pit them against Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, while group leadership would mean a slightly less tricky fixture.
ANALYSIS:
England just seemed to lose a bit of creativity and quality going forward down the left-hand side without O’Reilly and they posed more of a threat in a 15-minute spell after he came on than we did in the rest of the game.
O’Reilly got in some great positions, offered more on the ball and was also very unlucky when his header hit the bar.
We could also understand if Tuchel brought John Stones back in for Ezri Konsa. Although England main issue against Ghana was being unable to break them down, there were still some concerns defensively.
In the two real attacks that Ghana had when they managed to get forward, one could have seen them win a penalty and the other one could have ended with Jordan Pickford getting a red card.
England got away with it both times, but Tuchel has changed things in his defence and there is no doubt that there is some uncertainty back there.
We don’t know if that has affected Pickford too, but he has not looked assured so far as he normally does.
In the first game, his distribution was pretty poor and then he got caught out against Ghana when he came rushing out, so maybe those changes did not help his situation either.
England head coach Thomas Tuchel explained that Trevoh Chalobah’s call-up to replace injured full-back Tino Livramento when he pulled out of the World Cup squad was designed to free up Jarell Quansah to play at right-back.
When Reece James suffered a hamstring injury, which Tuchel claimed “no-one saw coming” – despite the Chelsea captain’s history of suffering that particular injury – it has given him the chance to play Bayer Leverkusen’s Quansah in his place against Panama.
Morgan Rogers is an attacking replacement for the rested Declan Rice, while Marcus Rashford deserves his chance after two disappointing performances from Anthony Gordon.
Bukayo Saka, whose minutes have been carefully managed because of a lingering Achilles injury, gets his first start of the World Cup as England seek more cutting edge after the lack-lustre goalless draw against Ghana.
When Panama find themselves on the ball, they showcase strong technical quality to play out of the opposition’s immediate pressure. Midfielder Cristian Martinez stands out in this regard.
One of England’s biggest strengths this World Cup, however, has come from their counter-pressing – with even their biggest stars buying in to working hard, crowding around the ball and winning it back immediately after losing it.
But if Panama can find short and quick combinations before they speed up play – either down the same wing or to the far-side winger with a switch – they could be dangerous.
Their fast attacks generally conclude in crosses rather than central through-balls.
Everything argues for starting the game with patience. While both sides will advance with a draw, Croatia probably need three points more than Ghana need one.
Dalic noted during his media availability that Ghana have played both their group games in a low block, and he is not wrong.
Queiroz knows his side can afford to sit in, frustrate Croatia’s older midfield spine and look to hurt them on the counter – a clear and present threat given Ghana’s pace on the break and Croatia’s usually high defensive line.
Publicly, Queiroz is not selling caution. Asked about his ultra defensive setup in the buildup to the game, the Ghana coach rejected suggestions he would set his team up to defend.
“I only know how to play to win,” he said.
But we will have to take that with a pinch of salt seeing as he said almost the exact same thing when asked about his conservative approach at his inaugural press conference with Ghana, only to do the exact opposite.
That mindset and tactical strategy have taken Ghana to their first knockout phase in 16 years. As long as it continues to progress Ghana forward there will be few complaints.
Ghana have no real need to be too adventurous in this game, except maybe to show off their attacking abilities and give youngsters a run out.
Their motivation to win lies mainly in setting themselves up for a good draw in the round of 32, where they could potentially face Congo DR, rather than finishing second with Portugal or Colombia lurking.
Ayew’s place in the side was openly questioned after a laboured display in the opening win over Panama, when his lack of pace was exposed and some of his decision-making was criticized.
His response against England more or less settled that argument. Ayew recorded a tournament-high 204 defensive pressures across Ghana’s first two matches – 83 against Panama and 121 against England – more than any other player at the World Cup.
His work off the ball helped Ghana hold their defensive shape and frustrate the Three Lions for 90 minutes.
Ayew put his full experience on display. No other player in the Black Stars squad comes close, and this is without mentioning his ability to hold up the ball and link up play.
Pace is not the captain’s forte. He knows it, and so does his coach. Queiroz has built his team’s identity around exactly the kind of collective sacrifice Ayew has provided.
PREDICTIONS:
Sadiq’s Prediction: Ghana could edge Croatia by a solitary goal if Otto Addo’s side maintain the disciplined defensive structure that has underpinned their campaign. The Black Stars have consistently operated in a compact low block, frustrating opponents before breaking quickly through their pace on the counterattack.
Croatia’s ageing midfield, despite its technical quality, could struggle against Ghana’s relentless defensive pressure, especially with captain André Ayew leading from the front.
Ayew has registered a tournament-high 204 defensive pressures across Ghana’s opening two matches, highlighting his importance beyond goals and assists. If Ghana remain compact and clinical on the break, a narrow victory is well within reach.
My Prediction: Ghana 3-1 Croatia
Peter’s Prediction: A draw remains a highly realistic outcome given the circumstances surrounding both teams. Ghana know a point is enough to guarantee qualification, meaning there is little incentive to abandon the cautious, counter-attacking system that has served them so well.
Croatia, needing victory more desperately, are expected to control possession and push numbers forward, but Ghana’s low defensive block has frustrated stronger opponents throughout the tournament. Ayew’s experience, defensive discipline and ability to retain possession under pressure will be crucial in helping Ghana absorb sustained attacks.
If the Black Stars remain organised and clinical on the counter, they have every chance of earning the point needed to advance while extending their impressive defensive record.
My Prediction: Ivory Ghana 1-1 Croatia
Gbenga’s Prediction: This could prove to be Ghana’s statement victory of the tournament. While Croatia are likely to dominate possession, Ghana possess the tactical discipline and pace to exploit the spaces left behind by Croatia’s traditionally high defensive line.
Coach Otto Addo has shown throughout the group stage that his team is comfortable surrendering possession before launching swift counterattacks. With Croatia expected to push for all three points, Ghana could capitalize through quick transitions.
André Ayew’s experience, hold-up play and relentless work rate, combined with the youthful pace around him, could prove decisive in another famous Black Stars victory.
My Prediction: Ghana 2-1 Croatia
Gloria’s Prediction: A disciplined Ghana performance could see the Black Stars secure a comfortable win while preserving another clean sheet. Croatia may enjoy long spells of possession, but Ghana’s defensive organisation has been one of the tournament’s biggest surprises, successfully frustrating opponents with a compact shape.
The tactical battle heavily favours Ghana if Croatia become impatient. Their experienced midfield could be forced into errors as Ghana absorb pressure before breaking with speed. Ayew’s leadership and defensive contribution continue to set the tone, while Ghana’s younger attackers can punish Croatia’s high line.
Another efficient display could send Ghana into the knockout stage as group winners.
My Prediction: Ghana 3-2 Croatia