GRADUALLY, the nation is moving towards the days of decision, when Nigerians will, once again, decide those who will lead them at different levels, for another four years, from May 2027.
Aside from the presidential and National Assembly elections, scheduled to hold on Saturday, January 16, 2027, elections will take place in 28 states of the federation, including all 993 state assembly constituencies, on February 6.
Already, the political atmosphere is getting charged with contenders and pretenders rushing to align with platforms that can best support their 2027 aspirations within the window allowed by the Electoral Act 2026.
At the moment, just like in previous cycles, the smaller parties, owing to their pocket-friendly costs of running, seem to have provided a haven for those categorised as pretenders as well as fresh entrants that could have something to offer.
On the other hand, the ruling All Progressives Congress, in particular, and a few others that have supposedly entered the big league on the back of opposition figures’ alignments, have practically shut out unknown surnames and shallow pockets, leaving mainly older, recycled politicians and their offspring to jostle for largely predetermined tickets for top elective positions. But the bigger the platform, the deeper the intricacies.
While personal ambitions seem to have left a once perceived united opposition in virtual disarray, the distended ruling APC may be having its first signs of size discomfort, after the record-breaking high-level defections across Nigeria, what with the reported internal conflict in the Progressive Governors’ Forum and the bold resistance by party members and aspirants to consensus arrangements across many states.
Even when some analysts and patriotic Nigerians rooted for a vibrant opposition, just for the country to have a semblance of a keenly contested election in what can still be seen as a democracy, it was clear to the discerning that many of those posing as better replacements for the incumbent President Bola Tinubu had even worse track records, going by media records.
This scepticism notwithstanding, not a few people prayed for the African Democratic Congress, the then undiluted opposition platform, to overcome what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to weaken its position ahead of the general elections until a hapless presidential ticket-induced collision set coalition members on different paths and exposed the real agenda of some of the players.
Despite the joint press conferences and celebrated zonal meetings by frontline faces of the coalition, which appeared to be truly borne out of genuine efforts at “rescuing the nation”, the recent collision, which shifted attention to the Nigerian Democratic Congress, has suggested that “life-long ambitions”, aimless thirst for power, and other egocentric considerations, far from the wellbeing of Nigeria, might have been the real driving forces.
Right now, with former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso; former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, and National Assembly members, who initially defected to the ADC, now in NDC, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President David Mark, former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, and others, still in ADC, the opposition may be sufficiently fragmented to give the ruling party a better chance at winning, barring a last-minute joker that could turn the tide.
Whatever the situation points at, as the ongoing tinkering and jockeying continue on the opposition front, and the ruling party prepares to formally unveil the President as its 2027 candidate, citizens who seem to be currently stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea, need to weigh available options to see who, among those on the field, can move Nigeria even an inch closer to the economy it deserves.
There are many things to consider in concluding, which do not, in all honesty, favour many of those currently in the race, including former President Goodluck Jonathan, whose name started making headlines a few days ago.
Even if it may be a little late to upset the prevailing “same old folks” political environment, enabled by the complacency of voters who seem to have, over the years, resigned to a “we can’t beat them” fate, it would be practically inane to continue whining over some unpalatable economic situation when the whiner refuses to contribute to any efforts at challenging the status quo.
The first unreasonable action is to stay out of elections and expect a miracle to install your definition of “the right leaders”. If, in 2023, only 25,286,616, about 27 per cent of the 93 million plus eligible voters, participated in the presidential election, then patriotic Nigerians would need to work more on sensitising voters on the implications of this all-important civic responsibility.
Research has shown that citizens’ loss of confidence in the electoral system, owing to what they perceive as manipulated results, among others, has continued to worsen voter apathy in Nigeria as reflected in the declining voter turnout, every election year, since 2007.
Data from the Independent National Electoral Commission shows that voter turnout increased by 52.3 per cent in 1999, the first general election since 1993, to 69 per cent in 2003. Since then, it has been on the decline, dropping to 57.5 per cent in 2007, 53.7 per cent in 2011, 43.7 per cent in 2015, 34.8 per cent in 2019, and about 27 per cent in 2023.
If this change-inhibiting trend can be reversed and more Nigerians are sensitised to exercise their rights under the constitution, with a view to either forcing a change, where the prevailing situation is unbearable, or establishing continuity where the incumbent needs to be given a chance to consolidate on gains if visible, then the country would have crossed a major hurdle in the never-ending quest for genuine and inclusive growth without economic ambiguity.
This will also make vote-buying more expensive and less potent for predominantly clueless money bags who prey on the poor majority every election cycle and keep them poor till the next season to repeat what they have wickedly assumed to be the effective strategy across major positions.
If the right, violence-free election mode is activated among citizens, the 2027 election can still produce manageable fruits with the limited choices provided by those currently on the field at all levels. The idea would be to choose between the endurable and the disastrous.
For those who have consistently called on Jonathan to return, based on touted achievements while he held power, there are many other things to consider.
Yes, Nigeria’s economy consistently maintained a good growth rate of between six and seven per cent under his administration, while it nosedived to an average of 2.5 per cent during the late Muhammadu Buhari administration after an initial contraction in 2026. (This has grown, from official statistics, to about four per cent currently).
However, analysts must not forget the oil sector boom under Jonathan and the different interpretations given to the GDP rebasing of 2014, in contrast to the 2016 global economic crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which threw the Buhari administration off balance.
This is definitely not to say that the brains assembled in the Jonathan cabinet did not help to translate the favourable conditions into immediate wins for the economy.
Nevertheless, telling a widely perceived “gentle” Jonathan to enter the fray at the moment may not make much sense. The crazy Nigerian system, made more complex by crazy cabals in virtually all major sectors, may be too complicated for a politician who is not crazier!
…To be continued next week.
- Dr Kolapo is publisher of The Point and her column, Compass, runs on the back page of the Punch newspaper on Monday. The column appears on News Point Nigeria newspaper on Tuesday.