SUDAN’s war is in strategic stalemate. Each side stakes its hopes on a new offensive, a new delivery of weapons, a new political alliance, but neither can gain a decisive advantage.
The losers are the Sudanese people. Every month there are more who are hungry, displaced, despairing.
The Sudan armed forces triumphantly announced the recapture of central Khartoum in March.
It broadcast pictures of its leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, walking through the ruins of the capital’s Republican Palace, which had been controlled by the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), since the earliest days of the war in April 2023.
The army deployed weapons newly acquired from Egypt, Turkey and other Middle Eastern countries including Qatar and Iran. But its offensive quickly stalled.
The RSF, headed by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti”, responded with a devastating drone attack on Port Sudan, which is both the interim capital of the military government and also the main entry point for humanitarian aid.
These were long-range sophisticated drones, which the army accuses the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying – a charge the UAE rejects, along with well-documented reports that it has been backing the RSF during the 27-month conflict.
Hemedti struck a deal with Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, the veteran rebel commander of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North, which controls the Nuba Mountains near the border with South Sudan.
Their forces combined may be able to make a push to the border with Ethiopia, hoping to open new supply routes.
Meanwhile, the RSF has been besieging the capital of North Darfur, el-Fasher, which is defended by a coalition of Darfurian former rebels, known as the Joint Forces, allied with the army.
Most of the fighters are ethnic Zaghawa, who have been in fierce conflict with the Arab groups that form the core of the RSF.
Month after month of blockade, bombardment and ground attacks have created famine among the residents, with the people of the displaced camp of Zamzam worst-hit.
The RSF and its allied Arab militias have a terrifying record of massacre, rape and ethnic cleansing. Human rights organisations have accused it of genocide against the Massalit people of West Darfur.
Zaghawa communities in el-Fasher fear that if the Joint Forces are defeated, they will suffer savage reprisals at the hands of the RSF.
The pressure on el-Fasher is growing. Last week the RSF captured desert garrisons on the border with Libya held by the Joint Forces.
The military has accused forces loyal to Libyan strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east of the country and is also a reported beneficiary of Emirati support, of joining in the attack.
Sudan’s civilians, who six years ago managed the extraordinary feat of overthrowing the country’s long-time leader Omar al-Bashir through non-violent protests, are in disarray.
Different groupings are aligned with Burhan, with Hemedti, or trying to stake out a neutral position. They are all active on social media, polarised, acrimonious and fragmented.
The neighbourhood committees that were the driving force of the civic revolution are clinging to life.