NIGERIA is bracing for nationwide protests this week over economic hardship.
Politicians and the army have warned people against taking to the streets, but organisers say government failings have left them little choice.
Both sides have made comparisons with recent protests in Kenya that forced the government to withdraw new taxes, but it is not clear what shape the rallies could take in Nigeria.
With demonstrations set to start on Thursday, AFP looks at how things stand.
What’s the economic backdrop?
Nigeria is suffering its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation following reforms President Bola Ahmed Tinubu brought in after coming to power last year.
He ended a fuel subsidy and currency controls, leading to a tripling of petrol prices and a spike in inflation.
The US-based World Bank and International Monetary Fund said the measures were needed to revive Nigeria’s economy and the government has appealed for patience.
But the reforms have hit Nigerians hard. Food inflation has topped 40 percent and hunger is spreading, especially in the north.
Kenya-style unrest?
Some analysts believe rallies in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, could take on Kenya-style momentum, pointing to similar grievances and the role of young people promoting protests online.
Nigerian risk consultancy SBM said a heavy-handed approach from the authorities risked “a confrontation that may spiral beyond anyone’s control.”
But many experts think Nigeria’s situation is different and less likely to bring out large crowds, pointing to the limited unrest Tinubu’s reforms have seen so far and fears following past crackdowns.
Who is behind the protests?
The authorities have directed warnings against protesting at young people, who have built support on social media under the hashtag “EndBadGovernanceinNigeria”.
Several campaign groups have declared plans to stage peaceful rallies.
Two young protest organisers last week told AFP they dismissed claims from the authorities that groups bent on violence had “hijacked” the protests.
Organisers say ordinary Nigerians are at the heart of the movement, and accuse authorities of laying the groundwork for a possible crackdown.
What are people saying on the street?
Activists hope thousands of Nigerians will protest nationwide, especially in major cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano.
But many in the capital told AFP they were worried about violence or missing a day’s pay.
“I would like to join the protests because I need a change in Nigeria,” said Patience, a 27-year-old mother who sells corn at a roadside shop.
She explained her priority was earning enough to buy formula milk for her nine-month-old son. The price has soared since the president’s reforms.
“If I have enough money before that day I will go,” she said.
What about the north?
The economic situation has had a devastating effect in majority-Muslim northern Nigeria and religious leaders appear worried, urging people to shun rallies.
But several groups plan to push ahead, and on the streets of Kano, people expressed support for demonstrations.
“I’ll definitely go out to protest,” said Mansir, a 32-year-old schoolteacher.
“We are dying in silence and it is only when we shout that the government will understand what we are going through,” he said.
“The clerics are only claiming Islam forbids protests without bringing any proof. I will defy them.”
What do the authorities say?
Across Nigeria, the protest calls have been met by a torrent of warnings from officials, security forces and governors urging youth to stay away. There have also been several arrests.
The government has agreed to more than double the minimum wage and implemented measures to alleviate hunger, such as rice deliveries across the country.
Police in Abuja say they are deploying more than 4,000 officers in preparation.
The army said it would “not stand by and allow anarchy to befall our nation,” while President Tinubu has warned of the risks of escalation.
“We are talking about hunger, not burials. We have to be careful,” he said last week.
What has happened in the past?
Nigeria’s last major protest movement ended in a crackdown by security forces.
The 2020 #EndSARS rallies began over abuses by the SARS anti-robbery police squad and spiralled into the largest anti-government demonstrations in Nigeria’s modern history.
Amnesty International said soldiers shot at least 10 people dead at the Lekki toll gate in Lagos. The government and the army deny responsibility.
In 2012, the military also clamped down on “Occupy Nigeria” protests over former president Goodluck Jonathan’s bid to remove fuel subsidies.