SINCE October, the near-daily cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful Iranian-backed militia and political movement in Lebanon, have killed hundreds of people and forced tens of thousands from their homes on both sides, raising fears that the relatively contained violence could escalate into an all-out conflict.
Amid the strikes and counter-strikes, however, there have been indications that they were trying to avoid a major confrontation. But miscalculation was always a risk, and Saturday’s attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, could have been that.
Israel accuses Hezbollah of carrying out the strike on a football pitch that killed at least 12 people, including children, the deadliest attack in the current hostilities, and has promised to respond.
“Israel will not overlook this murderous attack,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, according to a statement released by his office. “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price which it has not paid up to now.”
Before the scale of the strike became clear, however, the group said it had targeted the Hermon Brigade with an Iranian-made Falaq missile, one of several attacks carried out on that day. The base, on the slopes of Mt Hermon, is about 3km (two miles) from where the explosion happened, raising the possibility that the missile missed its target.
Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli military, said intelligence information indicated that the attack had been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon, describing the group’s denial as “a lie”.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, too, said “every indication” was that the missile had been fired by Hezbollah, and that the US stood by “Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks”.
Lebanon, then, is waiting for a possible major Israeli reaction.
